039
FNUS72 KTBW 101016
FWSTBW

Spot Forecast for FFS PCFR joint training exercise...Florida Forest Service
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
616 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on September 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

No fire weather hazards are expected as abundant moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above
critical levels for the next several days. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms expected each day. Light winds out of the E to SE.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Scattered showers
                    early in the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon. Numerous showers late in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 8 mph shifting to the south 6 to
                    7 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 29.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........35  39  33  29  24  22  28  32  38  50  58
Weather cov.....                            SCT SCT NUM NUM
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCT SCT SCT SCT
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   10  10  10  30  40  60  60
Temp............75  76  80  84  87  89  91  93  91  90  88
RH..............98  97  90  79  72  67  63  59  60  62  66
20 FT wind dir..E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   5   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   8   9   9   10  10  9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.1 1.5 2.6 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.4 3.5 2.7
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   7   8   8   8   7   6   6   6   6   7
Dispersion idx..3   6   12  20  26  30  32  32  31  29  25
LVORI...........9   8   5   3   3   3   2   1   1   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Numerous showers
                    and scattered thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 7 mph.
Dispersion index....13 decreasing to 2 early in the evening.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........66  65  71  69  67  68  56  47  56  42  35  30
Weather cov.....NUM SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO
Chc of pcpn (%).60  50  30  30  30  20  10  10  0   0   0   0
Temp............84  82  80  79  78  78  77  77  77  76  76  75
RH..............75  79  84  86  89  90  91  91  92  94  94  94
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   SE  S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.8   7   7   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.6   5   6   7   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
Dispersion idx..17  9   2   1   1   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
LVORI...........3   4   5   6   7   6   6   6   6   6   7   7

$$
Forecaster...Pearce
Requested by...D.Lacy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621562.0/TBW
.DELDT 09/10/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL daniel.lacy@fdacs.gov