330
FXUS62 KTBW 291732
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
132 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

While weak surface high pressure remains in control, an upper-level
disturbance remains over the Florida peninsula, providing additional
moisture and instability to support scattered to numerous
thunderstorms. This is also pushing the center of the surface ridge
axis farther south, leading to a low-level westerly flow. Today,
this flow is more WNW.

The 12Z sounding noted a decline in PWATs with a notable dry layer
observed in the 1000-700mb layer. It appears that some of the drier
air was mixed down with yesterday`s thunderstorms, providing a setup
that is more favorable today for strong, gust winds to accompany
storms (which are having no trouble developing this afternoon).
Heavy rainfall is also a concern once again for today.

With the upper-level low remaining overhead, the next few days look
unsettled. Plenty of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
across the region, especially near and along the coast. Heavy
rainfall will be the primary concern for the next few days.

By late week, a remnant frontal boundary looks to sink south into
the NE Gulf. This could begin to develop into an area of low
pressure once this happens, with some gradual tropical or
subtropical development thereafter as it drifts slowly off the U.S.
Coastline. At this time, the primary impact will be additional heavy
rainfall late-week, with poor marine conditions likely as well.

As the low slowly drifts away, a gradual return to more typical
summertime weather is likely to take place, with warm, humid
conditions returning and more typical summertime thunderstorm
patterns returning. For the first part of the week, though, expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that are capable of
forming more readily at anytime.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A line of thunderstorms is approaching the Tampa Bay Area
coastline, with the potential for strong gusty winds and MVFR to IFR
impacts over the next couple hours at TPA and PIE in particular. In
addition to this activity, thunderstorms are beginning to develop
along the sea breeze boundary in SWFL, and that activity is expected
to continue over the next few hours. It is expected to be an active
afternoon, with VCTS lasting until after sunset, before becoming
more quiet overnight. With ample moisture and instability remaining,
however, thunderstorms are expected again early tomorrow morning for
coastal Tampa Bay Area terminals, spreading farther south and inland
through the day. There will be long periods where terminals could
experience VCTS over the next few days, including tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

As extra moisture streams into the area, showers and thunderstorms
will increase in coverage and frequency over the next few days.
Mariners should expect hazardous winds and seas in the vicinity of
these storms, along with reduced visibility. Weather conditions
become even more poor by late week as a weak frontal boundary
falls apart over the N Gulf, leading to higher winds and seas,
along with widespread thunderstorm activity.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

No concerns with ample moisture to support numerous thunderstorms
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  87  76  87 /  60  70  50  60
FMY  74  90  74  91 /  40  60  40  50
GIF  74  88  73  90 /  50  70  30  60
SRQ  74  88  74  88 /  50  70  40  50
BKV  71  87  71  88 /  60  80  50  70
SPG  76  85  76  86 /  60  70  50  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery