043
FXUS62 KTBW 111211
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
811 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low and surface storm system over the Carolina coastline to
move into the W Atlantic today as surface high pressure continues to
build into the region on gusty NW winds bringing drier conditions
and slightly below normal temps today. These NW winds will keep
choppy breaking waves along area beaches today for a high rip
current risk as well.

The high pressure center is expected to move from the Gulf Basin
through mid week then cross the FL Peninsula before moving into the
W Atlantic late week with low level flow becoming southerly with
temps and dew points moderating.

The next surface storm system is expected to lift well N of the
region through the Great Lakes this weekend with the attendant cold
front moving over the local area Sun/Mon with a chance of mainly
showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 809 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions through the period with winds generally below 15k
knots out of the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure will keep gusty NW winds and hazardous choppy
seas over E Gulf waters though mid day as a Small Craft Advisory
will remain in effect. The pressure gradient relaxes and Winds
subside tonight with seas slower to respond. The high pressure
center weakens over the region with light winds and slight seas
mid to late week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure building into the region will bring a cool and very
dry airmass to the area. Min RHs are expected to drop to near critical
ranges on Tuesday and Wednesday especially over interior areas away
from the coast. But inland winds are expected to remain below 15 mph
preventing red flag conditions. Southerly flow returns late week

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  54  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  78  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  77  52  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  73  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  75  43  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  73  60  75  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close