266
FXUS62 KTBW 131822
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
222 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Surface ridge axis will remain across south Florida into Friday as
a weakening trough drifts south through the southeast states. This
will keep the south to southwest flow across the region with
scattered convection over the waters during the overnight and
morning hours moving onshore and into the interior by late
afternoon each day. The only exception could be across southwest
Florida where the flow will remain light which may allow some of
the showers and thunderstorms to move back toward the coast during
the evening.

Over the weekend the trough will wash out with a more east to
northeast flow setting up across the area. Deep moisture
associated with the trough will move into the region and this
combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes will lead to
scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms each day.

Early next week the flow appears to become rather light again and
with plenty of moisture expected to be across the area we`ll
continue to see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
with south winds 5 to 10 knots shifting to southwest to west near
the coast this afternoon, becoming light this evening and
overnight, then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots late Thursday
morning. MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and again
late Thursday morning and afternoon, with gusty and erratic
winds possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Winds will remain out of the south to southwest through Thursday
before shifting to northeast to east over the weekend. Wind speeds
will remain 10 knots or less with slight seas, except in the
vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of showers
and thunderstorms will still be overnight into the morning hours
along the land breeze and in the evening hours as storms push off
the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Ample low-level moisture will remain across the area supporting high
relative humidity values with winds 10 mph or less, except in the
vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns will
remain low for the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  93  81  94 /  20  50  10  50
FMY  78  93  77  94 /  20  50  20  50
GIF  78  96  78  97 /  30  50  20  50
SRQ  79  92  78  94 /  20  40  20  50
BKV  75  93  75  95 /  10  50  10  50
SPG  81  90  80  92 /  20  40  10  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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