161
FXUS62 KTBW 281727
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
127 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

While high pressure remains dominant at the surface, a weak upper-
level low is situated just north of the Florida peninsula. The
center of the high pressure is situated directly over central
Florida in response, with a light ESE flow across SWFL and a WSW
flow to the north across the Nature Coast. There is a layer of dust
in the atmosphere as well, but the impacts are quite limited in
nature. Water vapor satellite imagery shows plenty of moisture
remains present, and the 12Z sounding came in with a PW value of
1.86 inches. This moisture was distributed rather evenly through the
column, with a small temperature and dewpoint spread throughout.

With light flow and multiple boundary collisions taking place,
thunderstorms continue across the NE Gulf and are expected to
continue pushing east towards the coast over the next couple hours.
Thunderstorms should begin initiating over land soon as the sea
breeze begins to form. This is more likely to the south of Tampa Bay
where there has been virtually no cloud cover. Farther north, clouds
may slow this process.

As thunderstorms develop, the light WSW flow and inland sea breeze
propagation should push storms towards the center of the state. As
the afternoon progresses and turns to the evening, these
thunderstorms will consolidate towards the center of the state; but
outflow boundaries could push back towards the west coast and
initiate new storms back near the coast. As the land breeze develops
and pushes offshore overnight, then new storms could develop over
the Gulf, and the process will repeat itself.

As far as afternoon thunderstorms are concerned, there is the
potential to see some stronger storms once again today.  The
temperature at 500mb is around -8C, and the dust in the atmosphere
could enhance the potential for strong wind gusts later today. The
primary concern, however, is likely to be heavy rainfall. Storm
motions will be very slow; with plenty of moisture in the
atmosphere, this could lead to localized areas of flooding in
locations that are low-lying or have poor drainage.

The ridge axis will remain weak over the week ahead, with some
additional upper-level energy retrograding westward over the state
by early next week. This should keep a southwest flow persistently
in place across the Florida peninsula, with ample moisture remaining
to support scattered to numerous storms. The flow does look to
increase a bit into next week, however, favoring a more traditional
early morning window for thunderstorms across the west coast, with
storms generally transitioning inland by early afternoon. Overall,
though, this pattern will continue to be pretty typical for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region this
afternoon, with windows for impacts at most terminals. However,
overall confidence has become lower for coastal Tampa Bay area
terminals, given current trends. Cloud cover and dying
thunderstorms over the Gulf suggest most activity will probably
skip over the coastal area and redevelop inland. There is a still
a low chance that outflow boundaries could also push back towards
the coast later this evening and could lead to additional
thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of coastal terminals
late. However, have opted to remove mention at this time given the
current conditions. This is not the case across SWFL. The lighter
flow, still with a weak ESE component, means that once storms
begin to develop, they are likely to linger in the vicinity of
terminals, with a higher probability of impacts. A similar
pattern will repeat for the next few days, but will become a bit
stronger out of the WSW, solidifying the best timing for coastal
terminals to see thunderstorms in the morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Coastal showers and thunderstorms continue to be prevalent in the
morning hours as the flow veers to a south and eventually southwest
direction for the next week. As the flow grows stronger early next
week, these storms should generally transition inland during the
afternoon and evening hours. Even through the flow will likely grow
stronger, winds generally remain below 15 knots outside of
thunderstorms, with seas of 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Ample moisture remains across the region as the light flow today
gradually transitions to a more predominant SSW flow by early next
week. This will favor early storms at the coast that then transition
inland by the afternoon. There are no fire weather concerns with
high RH values remaining through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  77  89 /  30  60  60  70
FMY  75  92  75  91 /  40  70  40  70
GIF  75  92  75  89 /  60  80  50  70
SRQ  75  90  75  89 /  30  60  50  70
BKV  71  92  72  89 /  40  70  60  70
SPG  77  89  77  86 /  30  60  60  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery