273
FXUS62 KTBW 151745
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
145 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions will continue for the next several days. Heat
  advisory today from 11 AM to 7 PM for all of west central and
  southwest Florida.

- Below normal rain chances for most of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The morning sounding was still around 2 inches this morning which
was pretty similiar to yesterday when we widespread storms along I-
75. However the difference today is drier air WILL start to filter in as
we go throughout the day. This will help to limit storm activity
across West Central Florida. This is the not the case for SW
Florida where higher PWs will remain at least for one more day
and we are already starting to see activity in Highlands county.

The drier air across West Central Florida will eventually make
its say to Southwest Florida with PW generally between 1.5 to 1.75
on Sunday. Historically these lower during the summer months is
not enough moisture to produce much in the way of afternoon or
evening thunderstorm activity.

By early next week moisture will slowly return from North to
south. Monday most of us will be staying dry except for scattered
storms along the Nature Coast. By Tuesday I-4 will be the cut off
with storms to the north and dry air to the south. By Wednesday we
will see PW of 2+ inches across the whole state bring scattered
storm chances for everyone from Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Dry air will keep storms at bay for West Central Florida. However
we will see some higher moisture content in SW Florida which lead
to some afternoon and evening storms. Outside of thunderstorms we
will see VFR conditions with winds generally below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Winds will remain easterly today around 5 knots before
slowly shifting north on Sunday and Westerly by Monday. Winds will
remain out of the westerly direction through much of next work week.
Storm chances through the period will remain low as we are seeing
drier through Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Drier air will be filtering in today with best storm chances
in South Florida. Starting on Sunday the drier air will be sitting
over much of the state limiting shower chances through at least
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  79  94  80 /  20  10  10   0
FMY  95  78  96  78 /  50  10   0   0
GIF  96  77  97  77 /  20  10  20  10
SRQ  94  78  94  78 /  30  10  10   0
BKV  96  75  95  76 /  20  10  10  10
SPG  94  80  93  81 /  20  10  10   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Davis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis