Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
078 FXUS62 KTBW 230013 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 813 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025 Mostly quiet evening underway locally following somewhat active afternoon/early evening convection focused over S interior into parts of SWFL. Rainfall amounts mostly totaled less than an inch although there were pockets of estimated multi-inch totals mainly across parts of DeSoto County. Latest satellite and meso-analysis shows a shortwave continuing to scoot east across the peninsula, with radar still reflecting a few echoes across the Tampa Bay area extending E/NE along the I-4 corridor along with a remnant outflow boundary from earlier SWFL convection, and while a few sprinkles or light showers remain possible this evening, current obs are not indicating much in the way of these echoes reaching the ground. Made a few tweaks to the forecast grids to align with drier conditions currently through tonight, otherwise no other changes needed. && .DISCUSSION... A frontal boundary remains stalled across the peninsula this afternoon with showers and a few thunderstorms continuing in its vicinity. As we head through the rest of the day, this activity will continue to shift south and east, with the majority of the convection expected over inland and east coast locations through the evening. Additionally, some shortwave energy moving over the region has led to more development over the Gulf that will continue to approach and then move over the Nature Coast this evening. For tomorrow, residual moisture and daytime heating will lead to more showers and thunderstorms, with highest chances again over the interior. High pressure then builds back in for the weekend, bringing a return to southeast boundary layer flow. While some relatively drier air will have moved in behind the boundary for the northern part of the forecast area, this flow will advect some moisture back northward, which will help keep scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon and evening for mainly southern and interior locations. This overall pattern of daily rain chances continues into next week with warm and humid conditions persisting. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025 VFR expected through period across terminals, with PROB30 groups for late afternoon/early evening convection for SWFL terminals that will likely lie on the western edge of interior-focused activity. Winds light/variable overnight then increasing and turning onshore by early afternoon, remaining around 10 knots or less. && .MARINE... A few showers and thunderstorms will continue offshore the Nature Coast this afternoon but should diminish tonight. Overall, no headlines expected for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relatively drier air over the Nature Coast will lead to relative humidity values near 35% for tomorrow afternoon, but winds will remain below Red Flag criteria. Moisture gradually increases for the next several days after tomorrow, with no further fire weather concerns. No significant fog is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 94 77 94 / 10 20 10 20 FMY 75 94 74 94 / 20 50 10 40 GIF 74 94 73 95 / 20 40 10 40 SRQ 77 92 74 92 / 10 30 10 20 BKV 66 94 67 95 / 10 10 0 20 SPG 78 91 78 91 / 10 20 10 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming