803
FXUS62 KTBW 062344
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
744 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with scattered to
  numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

&&

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Surface high pressure remains over west central and southwest
Florida with warm humid conditions persisting. A few
showers/thunderstorms were located along the eastern edge of the
interior counties, and will dissipate over the next couple of
hours. A weak frontal boundary will sink over north Florida
tonight and Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
potentially developing mainly across Levy county.

Onshore boundary layer flow will continue through tomorrow with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over the
coastal waters after midnight and advecting locally onshore, most
likely around or shortly after sunrise. Typical westerly flow
expected on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing over the coastal counties during the morning/early
afternoon hours, then spreading inland and increasing in areal
coverage through the remainder of the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Surface high pressure extends across the peninsula this afternoon,
keeping a westerly boundary layer flow in place across the region
with a northwest flow aloft. Scattered showers and storms over
the Gulf this morning continue to move slowly east/southeastward
and will generally move inland through the rest of the afternoon
and evening. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday as a weak
frontal boundary drops southward into north Florida. This will
keep the same general rainfall pattern in place, but we`ll likely
see some extra activity for the northern part of the forecast area
closer to the boundary.

We briefly go back to east/southeast flow on Wednesday as high
pressure builds in from the northeast, but then this high settles
back southward for the end of the week, bringing a return to
south/southwest flow. This will lead to more storm activity later in
the day for Wednesday, going back to morning showers and storms near
the coast for Thursday and Friday. Really nothing abnormal in the
forecast, just changes in the winds dictating our thunderstorm
pattern and coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Mostly clear skies the remainder of the evening and much of the
overnight hours. A few showers/thunderstorms will move onshore
late tonight early tomorrow morning with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs, with
the best chance vcnty PIE/TPA/SRQ. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop vcnty all terminals Monday morning/early afternoon and
will spread inland, with storms vcnty LAL a few hours later than
the coastal terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026
High pressure over the waters will keep a relatively light west flow
in place through Tuesday with no headlines expected. The main hazard
will continue to be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the late night and morning hours, which will produce
locally gusty winds and higher seas. Winds will then switch to
easterly starting Wednesday and then back to south/southwest for the
end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. Westerly flow will continue through Tuesday
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
coastal waters moving onshore during the morning hours, then
shifting inland and becoming more numerous over the eastern half of
the Florida peninsula during the afternoon and evening hours each
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  90  77  90 /  30  70  40  80
FMY  78  92  77  92 /  10  40  20  80
GIF  75  93  75  92 /  20  70  30  80
SRQ  79  91  76  91 /  20  50  30  70
BKV  74  91  73  91 /  40  70  40  80
SPG  80  90  78  89 /  30  60  40  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme