Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
242 FXUS62 KTBW 131801 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 201 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 An upper level low around the Carolinas will shift to the northeast and merge with a secondary upper low as it dives southward across the Mid Atlantic region into tonight. As this occurs, the occluded nor`easter associated with this feature will remain rather stationary through the remainder of the day before finally shifting further out into the Atlantic over the coming days. Between the departing upper trough/low and a building ridge across the Southern Plains, our region remains in a deep layer northerly flow and this will continue to keep a dry air mass in place across west central and southwest Florida with mostly rain-free conditions through the middle of the week. However, recent guidance has been suggesting that there may be a back door cold front that slides through the region into the late Wednesday/Thursday time frame as an expansive area of high pressure shifts eastward across the Great Lakes and troughing aloft becomes more amplified across the western Atlantic. While this type of set up would typically favor at least some low rain chances on the eastern side of the peninsula as showers from the Atlantic come ashore and move inland, it isn`t entirely out of the question that some of this activity perhaps moves inland enough to bring some very light activity in some of our southern interior counties. However, forecast confidence in anything measurable remains too low to include any mentionable PoPs in the forecast at this time but even if a few light showers does develop, any activity would be very light and low-topped in nature. Upper level ridging shifts eastward off the Eastern Seaboard by late week and into the weekend with surface high pressure sliding into the western Atlantic. This will bring an increase in deeper moisture into the region as a more south-southeastly low level flow develops ahead of an approaching upper trough and cold front. The frontal boundary should pass through some time late Sunday into early Monday with PoPs increasing from north to south across the area, though rainfall amounts are not expected be enough to recover from the dry conditions that have been observed recently. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day as high pressure remains in control. Winds shift to the NE overnight but start to shift to more of a N-NW direction by Tuesday afternoon as the sea breeze develops at coastal sites with winds around 5-10 kts tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 High pressure north of the area will maintain mostly northeasterly winds generally less than 15 kts, though there will be a six hour period each evening beginning around sunset where winds could increase to exercise cautionary levels during this time. Winds will shift to the east or southeast by late week and into the weekend as a frontal boundary approaches the region by late weekend, which will bring the next chance of precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Minimum RH levels may fall to near critical levels over the coming days as drier air continues to filter into the region, but in general values should remain 40 percent in most areas. Winds will generally be out of the north or northeast through the middle of the week but wind speeds should be less than critical levels so red flag conditions are not expected at this time. Humidity levels should gradually recover by the end of the week and into the weekend as the winds start to shift more to the east and southeast, which will bring higher moisture into the area but the forecast looks mostly dry until the weekend when the next frontal boundary arrives. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 68 88 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 67 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 65 87 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 66 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 59 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 70 85 69 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close