101
FXUS62 KTBW 051854
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
254 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A lingering upper level trough in the eastern Gulf combined with
diurnal heating and tropical moisture should yield scattered showers
and isolated storms through this evening mostly in interior areas.
Any activity that develops through this evening is generally
expected to remain below severe limits given poor mid level lapse
rates but MLCAPE values should reach around 1500-2000 J/kg so this
could be enough to promote some deeper convection. Should this
materialize, there may be some stronger wind gusts that occur given
the presence of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) aloft but this potential
would be rather isolated at most and generally only for interior
areas away from the coast. The rain chances should then diminish
after around 9-10 PM with the loss of diurnal heating and the
departure of the upper trough as it weakens and shifts away from the
eastern Gulf overnight.

The tropical moisture that has been in place across the region in
recent days will begin to decrease through the end of the week and
into the weekend due to the influence of the SAL and broad mid level
ridging centered across south TX. Meanwhile the surface Atlantic
ridge axis will become established across south Florida through late
week and into the weekend, which will promote a mainly southwesterly
low level flow regime. Thus, this should favor late morning and
early afternoon scattered showers/storms for coastal areas before
activity spreads inland later in the day with highest PoPs then
shifting into interior areas and eastern portions of the Florida
peninsula. Based on this southwesterly flow regime, subsidence from
the influence of ridging aloft, and the lingering presence of the
SAL through the end of the weekend, decided to lower PoPs quite a
bit compared to NBM guidance. This will result in PoPs generally
ranging in the 40%-60% range in interior areas and 20%-40% range for
coastal ares each day through the end of the weekend. Rain chances
then are expected to increase by early next week as upper level
ridging in northern Mexico breaks down in response to a deepening
longwave trough along the eastern CONUS and the SAL is also forecast
to diminish by late weekend and into early next week.

By the end of the forecast period, it appears that the eastern
CONUS trough will lift away from the area as strong surface high
pressure and ridging aloft becomes established in the western
Atlantic. This should favor a transition to a more southeasterly
low level flow regime around mid week as the Atlantic ridge axis
shifts north of the area so a more dominant east coast sea breeze
should occur with late afternoon and evening convection favored
along the western side of the peninsula. In addition, heat
indices will also increase by early to mid week next week with
values possibly approaching advisory criteria so heat safety with
excessive heat risk ranging from elevated to significant so heat
safety practices may need to be considered.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the remainder of the
day but there is a chance of scattered SHRA/TSRA later this
afternoon and evening mainly in interior areas, though this is a
low chance overall so have only included VCTS at KLAL in 18Z TAF
issuance. Otherwise, any precipitation activity that develops
later today will diminish this evening with VFR conditions
expected area-wide through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

High pressure will be in control through the end of the week and
into the weekend with winds mostly out of the south and southwest generally
10 kts or less. Occasional showers and thunderstorms could also
occur at times with most activity expected during the overnight
and morning hours each day before the sea breeze develops in the
afternoon and pushes precipitation inland.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

In the wake of beneficial rainfall in recent days and elevated
humidity levels expected for the remainder of the week and
weekend, no fire weather concerns are anticipated at this time. In
addition, there will be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms
over the coming days with most activity developing late morning
and early afternoon along the coast before spreading inland later
in the day due to a southwesterly flow setting up across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  79  91 /  20  40  10  30
FMY  75  93  76  93 /  20  30  10  50
GIF  74  93  75  93 /  20  50  10  50
SRQ  75  90  76  90 /  20  30  10  30
BKV  70  92  71  92 /  40  40  10  30
SPG  78  88  79  89 /  20  30  20  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Davis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis