896
FXUS62 KTBW 231705
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
105 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A rainy start to the weekend thanks to a stationary boundary hanging
out over north FL. Rounds of rain and storms will continue to move
onshore through the rest of the afternoon and early evening. With
multiple rounds of showers and storms some areas could experience
localized flooding. Remember, turn around, don`t drown when you
come across water on the roads. Conditions will quiet overnight
overland, however showers and storms will continue to develop over
the waters with a few possibly making to the coast as the night
goes on. Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers are expected
once again tomorrow beginning along the coast and moving inland.
With the rain coverage the next couple of days, temperatures are
also expected to be just below normal.

By Monday, the stationary boundary drifts further south and east of
Florida and high pressure will build in. This will finally change
the flow from onshore to more northerly. A bit of dry air will also
filter in by midweek, slightly dropping dew points and humidity.
Rain chances will also decrease as we move back into a typical
summertime pattern with storms developing along sea breeze
convergence.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Rounds of scattered to numerous showers are expected to continue
through the afternoon into the evening. Periods of below VFR
conditions are expected for all terminals as these showers move
through. Winds will generally be below 10kts, however strong,
erratic winds can be expected near thunderstorms. Conditions are
expected to quiet overnight, however early morning coastal
showers are expected tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Less than ideal marine conditions continue today and tomorrow as
multiple rounds of showers and storms develop and move over the
waters. Conditions begin to improve by Monday as we transition back
to a more typical summertime pattern

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected today and
tomorrow. No major fire weather concerns as moisture remains
abundant.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  89  81  91 /  60  80  40  60
FMY  79  90  78  91 /  50  70  30  40
GIF  77  90  77  92 /  40  80  20  60
SRQ  79  89  78  90 /  60  80  50  60
BKV  74  88  74  90 /  50  70  40  50
SPG  79  86  79  88 /  60  80  50  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle