225
FXUS62 KTBW 060018
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
818 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
More active evening as easterly flow continues to advect showers
and isolated thunderstorms off the Atlantic and across the
peninsula during the afternoon and evening hours. Showers and
isolated storms were currently located over the interior along and
north of the I-4 corridor. Shower activity is expected to
dissipate across west central Florida by around midnight.

Little change on tap for Sunday as easterly flow will persist
with showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over the
interior during the early afternoon, and will push to the west
through the remainder of the day and evening hours. Stronger
storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 806 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Predominately VFR CIGs during the overnight hours...however, areas
of MVFR CIGs 020-030 will develop late tonight/early tomorrow
morning from the PGD area and north. Cloud bases will lift by
afternoon with VFR CIGs the remainder of the day at all terminals.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop Sunday afternoon
with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs which may impact all terminals,
mainly during the mid to late afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Unfortunately winds will remain around Small Craft Advisory
conditions for Sunday and through our work week of the east. The
only exception to that will be our southern waters which should see
winds more around 10 to 15 knots. With the strong easterly winds our
best chance to see showers each day will be in the late evening and
early overnight hours as showers push off the west coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  77  88 /  10  40  10  40
FMY  75  89  75  87 /  30  50  10  50
GIF  75  87  75  87 /  20  60  20  50
SRQ  74  89  74  87 /  20  40  10  40
BKV  73  88  73  88 /  10  50  10  40
SPG  76  86  76  86 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana