187
FXUS62 KTBW 050047
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
847 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Forecast generally on track this evening requiring no changes to
existing grids. Primary concern remains convective cluster of
showers and storms currently rapidly sweeping south across the
Nature Coast and into parts of WCFL, including the offshore waters.
Unfortunate timing for the arrival of the storms and associated
hazards, particularly lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours,
as many evening Fourth of July festivities are underway. These
storms will be sweeping through the Tampa Bay area over the next
1-2 hours, and it is highly advised that folks attending outdoor
activities seek proper shelter until the storms have passed and
conditions are safe to return outdoors.

Showers and storms should generally diminish by late evening, with
generally partly to mostly cloudy skies lingering overnight with a
slight chance of a shower.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The overall environment remains very moist with the recent ACARS
data from both TPA and SRQ showing PWAT values around 2.2" and these
values are over the 90th percentile for early July but fall a bit
short of the daily maximum. This deep tropical moisture will
continue to combine with diurnal heating and a remnant frontal
boundary to support elevated rain chances through tonight, though
there may be some areas that have an opportunity to enjoy
fireworks celebrations tonight mostly in some locations in
southern portions of the forecast area. With low level southwest
flow in place roughly from I-4 southward, this should focus
better storm chances in interior areas so this may provide some
opportunity to enjoy outdoor holiday festivities in locations
closer to the coast in southern portions of the TBW CWA. However,
this very moist air mass can still generate scattered storms at
any time so not a rain-free scenario by any means. Meanwhile,
further north across the Nature Coast, recent hi-res guidance has
been coming into better agreement on the idea of a disorganized
cluster of convection developing around north central FL and
dropping to the south-southwest through late evening, possibly
even moving through the Tampa Bay area before weakening and/or
moving offshore. Forecast confidence in the exact evolution of
this potential area of convection is not particularly high but
given the closer proximity of the remnant boundary in the area and
a dominant Atlantic sea breeze spreading inland in the northeast
flow regime, this scenario certainly appears reasonable and will
be something that will need to be monitored for holiday
festivities from the Tampa Bay metro area northward into the
Nature Coast region through tonight.

Deep tropical moisture will remain in place for at least the start
of the weekend but highest rain chances should focus across northern
portions of the forecast area during the day on Saturday as the
northeast flow will allow the Atlantic sea breeze to spread
inland. However, southwest flow for central and southern portions
of the area combined with some pockets of dry air should limit
precipitation coverage somewhat the second half of the day
tomorrow, particularly coastal areas as better rain chances should
move inland as the day progresses. There also appears to be two
separate areas of cyclonic mid level flow setting up with one
feature (AL92) slowly organizing off the SE coast and a secondary
pocket of vorticity dropping into the east-central Gulf so PoPS
will still remain elevated as plenty of moisture lingers around.
There should then be a gradual downward trend in rain chances by
late weekend and into early next week as deeper moisture departs
as AL92 pulls northward into the Carolinas (possibly as a
tropical/subtropical disturbance) and Atlantic ridging builds in
from the west. While it won`t be entirely dry late weekend next
week as there will still be plenty of moisture to support storm
chances each day, mainly driven by daily sea breeze and outflow
boundaries, overall precipitation coverage will be less as a more
typical summertime pattern prevails. In general, it looks like the
primary flow regime is setting up to be a mainly a SW/W flow
pattern as the Atlantic ridge axis establishes across southern
portions of the peninsula so expecting highest rain chances for
coastal areas to occur morning and early afternoon hours before
spreading inland and towards the eastern half of the peninsula in
the late afternoon and evening hours. The decrease in
precipitation coverage and ridging aloft building in should also
yield an uptick in heat indices through at least mid week before
the ridge breaks down somewhat as a frontal system moves into the
eastern US late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Evening showers/storms for northern terminals TPA/PIE and
potentially LAL/SRQ will bring TEMPO MVFR/LCL IFR conditions as
convection races southward across WCFL over the next few hours.
Conditions improve for remainder of the night with VFR returning.
Similar evolution currently expected for Saturday as generally
northerly flow will favor south/southeasterly propagating and
developing convection, most likely during the afternoon and
evening hours.

Southern terminals under a bit more onshore/SW flow pattern which
will favor predawn/early morning VCSH, with VCTS late morning
through mid afternoon before shifting inland/east of terminals
late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A stalled remnant frontal boundary and deep tropical moisture will
continue to support widely scattered to numerous shower and
thunderstorm development through the remainder of the holiday week
and into the weekend. The highest rain chances should generally
occur in the overnight and morning hours each day as southwest
flow should keep most of the precipitation activity over land
during the afternoon and evening hours but occasional storms will
be possible at any time and this may result in locally high seas
and winds in the vicinity of any of this activity. Winds outside
of any thunderstorm activity will generally be out of the
southwest at 5-10 kts throughout the weekend and slightly drier
air then begins to move into the area by next week with rain
chances decreasing slightly, though daily showers and storms will
remain possible each day and mostly favored once again in the
overnight and morning hours as onshore flow continues.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Deep tropical moisture and elevated rain chances will continue
through the remainder of the holiday week and into the weekend
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible each
day. The elevated rain chances and high humidity values will keep
the fire danger low with no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  89  78  89 /  70  80  60  70
FMY  77  90  77  91 /  50  70  40  50
GIF  75  89  75  91 /  50  80  30  70
SRQ  76  88  77  89 /  60  80  60  60
BKV  72  89  73  90 /  50  80  50  70
SPG  77  86  78  87 /  70  80  70  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery/Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close