398
FXUS62 KTBW 050555
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1255 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Low clouds and fog are a possibility overnight and into the early
morning hours. Guidance keeps moisture high enough to support IFR
TO LIFR conditions, especially after around 09Z. Current cloud
coverage is helping delay the radiational fog development and it
will be a competition between low clouds and fog. MOst area will
likely see one or the other, which brings ample uncertainty to the
forecast. After sunrise, conditions should gradually become VFR
with light and variable winds becoming west to northwest.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

As the warm and humid air mass continues across the area,
conditions remain favorable for fog with development expected once
again tonight. Based on latest hi-res data, expecting fog and/or
low stratus coverage to be most widespread over land and nearby Gulf
waters across the Nature Coast overnight with further southward
expansion towards the Tampa Bay area by early Wednesday morning.
However, with highest confidence at this time generally focused
across the Nature Coast, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from
Midnight to 10 AM Wednesday morning for northern marine zones and
Hernando/Sumter counties northward, though a southward expansion
of this may be needed overnight so observations will be monitored
closely. While conditions look less favorable for fog development
into SWFL and southern marine zones due to larger dewpoint
depressions and a less pronounced nocturnal inversion, can`t rule
out some patchy development in some areas as overall flow will
still be light to calm. Other than some minor adjustments to the
fog forecast for the overnight period, the ongoing forecast
remains in good shape at this time with no other changes planned
this evening.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  63  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  63  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  84  64  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  80  62  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  83  57  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  76  63  74  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Giarratana/Delerme