Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
127 FXUS62 KTBW 151756 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1256 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a medium chance of patchy ground fog from the I-4 corridor northward and a low chance elsewhere. - There is an increasing chance of fog areawide each morning during the work week. - Otherwise, sunny, dry, and gradually warming conditions continue. Temperatures will run above normal next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 Upper-level ridging remains centered over the Western Gulf. Sprawling surface high pressure remains in control across the FL peninsula, with the high centered over the northern half of the peninsula. A light and variable flow is present in response, allowing the sea breeze to develop this afternoon. However, with a small thermal gradient from land to water, the sea breeze will be light this afternoon. The overall pattern is fairly static for the next few days. The ridge will slowly flatten, gradually pushing the surface high southward. This will favor more of a light W to WSW flow over the next couple days. As a trough digs off the NE coast, a weak frontal boundary will approach early next week. Given how far away it remains from the parent system, and the relatively stronger ridging still in place across Florida, the front should wash out north of the region. Ultimately, this combo means continued warming and eventually some additional low-level moisture will arrive in the area. While still too uncertain for much mention in the forecast at this time, cloud cover is favored to increase on Tuesday and into Wednesday. A couple isolated sprinkles or even a shower are not completely out of the question across the central interior either. The more notable weather stories for the week will be the continued warming to above normal temperatures and early morning fog each day. The fog has the greatest potential for impact, with reduced visibilities possible each morning. The best fog potential will be Tuesday and Wednesday, but there is an increasing potential each morning through mid-week. Overall, with high pressure remaining dominant through the next seven days, the pattern is benign and dry. Mild mornings, warm afternoons, and pleasant evenings will continue through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 VFR weather prevails through the TAF period. There remains a low potential for fog to impact some terminals tomorrow morning. However, the probabilities remain too low for mention at this time. The potential for fog is higher for subsequent mornings next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 Light winds less than 15 knots favor light seas through the week as dry high pressure remains in control. There is a low possibility that pre-dawn land fog could meander over inshore waters during the morning, but this will quickly dissipate as the sun rises. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1250 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 Dry weather continues for the next week. However, enough low-level moisture remains to keep RH values in the 40% to 60% range. Light winds also do not favor erratic fire behavior. The main fire weather concern is for patchy morning fog each day through at least mid- week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 61 79 64 80 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 59 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 56 80 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 58 78 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 51 78 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 63 76 66 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Flannery