Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
867 FXUS62 KTBW 011800 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 .DISCUSSION... High pressure aloft remains over the region while the surface ridge axis extends across south Florida. A southwest to west low-level flow continues across the local area, with showers and thunderstorms shifting inland through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Highest chances will be for southwest Florida as well as the interior, as this is where the highest moisture resides. A similar pattern continues for the weekend with warm and humid conditions expected, though heat indices should largely remain below criteria. Next week, flow becomes more southeasterly as a weak boundary moves into the southeastern U.S. and the ridge shifts northward a bit. This will keep a typical summertime pattern in place with rain chances each day and warm conditions continuing. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Best storm chances for the rest of the afternoon and evening continue to be for southwest Florida sites and KLAL. Quiet conditions are expected overnight before additional showers and storms develop tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Southwest to west winds will continue over the waters for the next several days, with no headlines expected. Showers and some storms can be expected during the late night and early morning hours each day before shifting over land for the afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Warm and humid summertime conditions will continue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 93 82 94 / 10 40 20 50 FMY 78 94 78 94 / 30 50 20 50 GIF 78 96 78 96 / 20 60 20 50 SRQ 79 92 79 92 / 10 40 10 40 BKV 75 93 75 93 / 10 50 20 50 SPG 82 91 81 90 / 10 40 20 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$