Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
073 FXUS62 KTBW 060033 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 733 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 730 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 - Temperatures will gradually warm up through the weekend. - Significant cool down expected for early next week. - Marine hazards expected early next work behind a strong cold front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 730 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 No changes to the existing forecast. Partly cloudy skies overnight with a chance for some fog development late, north of I-4 mainly across Nature Coast locations. Lows from the mid to upper 50s north to the lower to mid 60s central and south. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1104 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 The pattern aloft across the region features a near-zonal flow over much of the southeast while a weak cutoff low lingers over the central Gulf. At the surface, high pressure has shifted just offshore over the Atlantic and this has led to a quick warm-up, with highs today reaching the lower to mid 80s. As we head through the next few days, the warming trend will continue as moisture also starts to increase. By Friday, dew points are back in the mid to upper 60s with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. For Saturday, troughing starts to spread over the region as surface high pressure moves farther eastward. This will lead to winds becoming more southwesterly, helping to increase humidity a bit more with highs also reaching the upper 80s for some inland locations. The upper/mid-level trough will then deepen on Sunday, with an associated frontal boundary approaching northern Florida. There remains some uncertainty regarding rain chances with this boundary as models continue to differ on whether there will be quite enough moisture for showers, so rain chances in the current forecast are no higher than 20%. The bigger story is the temperatures we`ll see behind this next front. The cooler and drier air will begin filtering in Sunday night, with lows in the lower 50s north to still mid/upper 60s south, with high temperatures Monday afternoon in the mid 60s north to upper 70s south. Monday night is when we get the much colder air as temperatures plummet into the mid/upper 30s for the northern and normally colder spots and down into the 40s/close to 50 elsewhere. We obviously still have several days to see how the forecast evolves, but some of these temperatures could approach records and this is true even for the high temperatures Tuesday, but just for a couple of locations. Again, still have several days to see how things evolved, but either way, get ready for another cool down early next week after a weekend of warm and humid weather coming up. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 VFR through the period with winds generally light E/NE overnight increasing to 5-8 knots during the afternoon, and may briefly turn onshore at TPA late afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1104 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 Northeast to east winds will remain over the waters over the next couple of days, then gradually become more southeast on Friday and then south to southwest on Saturday ahead of the next cold front. No headlines are expected through the weekend, but winds and seas will likely increase to advisory levels early next week behind the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1104 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 Moisture will gradually increase over the next few days, with relative humidity values forecast to remain above critical levels. Some patchy fog is expected for parts of the Nature Coast tonight and tomorrow night, but significant visibility restrictions are not anticipated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 66 82 66 84 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 67 83 67 85 / 0 10 10 10 GIF 64 81 65 85 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 65 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 56 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 68 79 68 81 / 0 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn