Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
166 FXUS62 KTBW 230114 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 814 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 811 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 Recent satellite imagery shows mid/upper level clouds streaming eastward across the region in the westerly flow aloft but clouds will gradually clear from north to south overnight as a shortwave slides by to the south of the area and drier air filters in following a weak frontal passage. This will allow lows to drop into the 40s across the Nature Coast and low/mid 50s for the remainder of the region, which is a few degrees below average for late February but not quite as cool as last night. Otherwise, generally quiet conditions are expected tonight with no adjustments needed to ongoing forecast as trends remain on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 Broad surface high pressure remains in control across the Eastern US with mostly a low-level easterly flow regime in place across the Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, a weak inverted trough off the northeast FL coast will shift off to the NE this evening and this will allow a weak cool front to slide southward through the region tonight and bring a brief round of drier air as PWATs fall below an inch overnight. However, deeper moisture will gradually recover on Sunday as an area of low pressure develops across the western Gulf and shifts eastward as this system approaches the Florida peninsula Sunday night into Monday. Thus, weather conditions are expected to be dry for most of the day on Sunday with highs reaching mainly the 70s and even near 80 in SWFL but PoPs increase Sunday night into Monday with increasing moisture advection as the system in the Gulf approaches. Widespread cloudiness across the region on Monday should limit thunder potential for most of the area as models show rather marginal instability values developing but if any convection were to occur it will mostly be across southern portions of the forecast area where conditions should be slightly more unstable. Otherwise, this activity should mostly occur as numerous to widespread showers with a small chance of embedded isolated storms mainly for southern areas. While there will be enough shear to perhaps support some organized activity, the overall lack of instability and weak lapse rates should keep the severe threat low enough to make this a mostly welcomed rainfall event due to recent worsening drought conditions, though we will need to monitor if the severe threat could increase if enough clearing can develop. Overall QPF amounts should generally range from 1-2" in SWFL, 0.50-1" in the Tampa Bay area, and a half inch or so for much of the Nature Coast, though some isolated higher amounts can certainly occur depending on whether or not convection can materialize. Much drier air filters into the area by Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area from the north through mid week with highs near to above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front is then expected to sweep through the region Thursday night into Friday with moisture return ahead of the boundary looking rather meager at this point, though NBM consensus blend of PoPs still shows slight/chance PoPs will still be possible before another surge of drier air builds in by the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 704 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period as high pressure remains in control to the north of the area. North-northeast winds tonight into Sunday with winds shifting onshore at coastal sites in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops and wind speeds of 4-7 kts throughout the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure shifts off the Southeast US coast into Sunday with winds mostly out of the east to northeast through the remainder of the weekend. An area of low pressure in the Gulf will then approach the Florida peninsula Sunday night into Monday with numerous to widespread showers storms developing across the region. This system will also bring increasing seas to 2-3 feet on Monday and a slight increase in winds near small craft exercise caution levels, though conditions should remain below small craft advisory criteria. Otherwise, drier air will move in by Tuesday with deceasing seas and winds into mid week as high pressure moves into the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure will maintain dry weather through the remainder of the weekend with winds mostly out of the east-northeast, though winds may shift onshore near the coast during the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. While minimum RH values may approach near critical levels on Sunday afternoon, wind speeds will be below red flag conditions. Fire danger then decreases by early next week as rain chances increase Sunday night into Monday as a low pressure in the Gulf approaches the region. This will bring much needed rainfall to the area on Monday before drier weather returns by the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 54 74 59 71 / 0 0 70 70 FMY 56 80 61 74 / 0 0 40 90 GIF 53 76 59 70 / 0 0 60 70 SRQ 55 77 60 72 / 0 0 70 80 BKV 46 75 53 71 / 0 10 70 60 SPG 57 73 61 70 / 0 0 70 70 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Rdavis UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Rdavis