327
FXUS62 KTBW 171109
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
709 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

We are looking at a pretty quiet weather pattern through the weekend
and into early next week. This will all be due to strong ridging
sitting over the state. This will bring us lot of sunshine and
lighter winds each day. The big story will be near record breaking
temperatures every afternoon with highs away from the coast in the
mid 90`s with a few spots possible getting into the upper 90`s.

A cold front is expected to push through the area on Thursday. Some
isolated showers and storms will be possible as it pushes through
but PoPs will be staying in the 20 to 30 percent range for now. We
will look at some drier air filtering in behind the front for
Friday. This will lead to possible critical RHs in the interior of
the state at they drop below 35 percent. However, when it comes to
temperatures don`t expect that big of a difference as highs will
only be a few degrees cooler which will still keep us around 90
degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

High pressure overhead through the middle of next week
will lead to some pretty quiet boating conditions. Winds will
generally stay between 5 to 10 knots out of the south and west. No
rain is expected through Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Ridging overhead will bring hot conditions through the
middle part of next week. Highs in the afternoon will be approaching
the mid to upper 90`s away from the coast. Winds will remain light
which should keep dispersion on the lower end. Besides that we are
not expecting any fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  75  92  77 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  93  74  93  75 /   0   0  10   0
GIF  94  73  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  87  73  90  75 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  92  66  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  88  77  89  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Aviation...Carlisle
Previous...Shiveley