326
FXUS62 KTBW 171821
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
221 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure is building back in over the area this afternoon, with
a southeast low-level flow continuing today. Showers and storms have
already begun to pop up and will continue to increase in coverage
through the rest of the afternoon and evening, especially closer
to the coast.

For Friday and through the weekend, ridging aloft will build
directly over the state, with increased subsidence and relatively
drier air keeping rain chances below normal each day. This will
allow high temperatures to climb and heat indices to approach
criteria as well. The ridge will then shift westward early next
week, with moisture returning to the region along with rain
chances going back up. Flow looks to be more onshore for these
days, which would keep the highest rain chances inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the region and could
affect any terminals through the afternoon and evening and will keep
TEMPO groups in place to account for this. A quiet overnight is
expected, then storm coverage is expected to be lower for tomorrow
afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast to south winds will continue over the waters through the
next few days, turning onshore with the sea breeze in the afternoon.
Conditions are expected to remain below headlines, but daily showers
and storms are expected, with locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. Warm and humid summertime conditions will
continue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  94  80  94 /  40  40  10  30
FMY  77  95  76  95 /  30  40  10  40
GIF  76  96  76  97 /  30  40  10  30
SRQ  76  94  76  93 /  40  30  20  20
BKV  73  94  73  95 /  50  50  10  30
SPG  79  91  79  91 /  40  30  20  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$