505
FXUS62 KTBW 121214
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
714 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably cold conditions continue this morning with a few
  records lows again likely.

- Rain-free conditions and gradually warming temperatures expected
  remainder of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

A bit more progressive pattern aloft this morning continuing to
feature a W CONUS ridge and E CONUS trough, with the trough axis
having pivoted offshore into the W Atlantic allowing some ridging
aloft to build northward over the peninsula from the N Caribbean/S
Gulf. At the surface, high pressure centered over FL and the NE
Gulf has led to light winds and continued dry conditions, with
another cold morning across the area owing to efficient
radiational cooling with freezing temps particularly over parts of
the Nature Coast that remain cloud-free, and chilly 30s and 40s
elsewhere. Following Tuesday morning`s impressive cold which saw
seven of our local climate sites break or tie previous record
lows, dating as far back as the late 1800s, a few additional
record lows are expected this morning. Unlike Tuesday afternoon`s
comparably impressive number of record low maximum temp records
broken or tied, sunny skies today and lighter winds will allow
afternoon temps to rebound rather impressively, with highs warming
into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

W Atlantic troughing doesn`t fully lift out of the picture as a
blocking ridge near Greenland essentially backs up the pattern,
allowing troughing to persist over SE Canada through the weekend
along with Central U.S. ridging, prompting W/NW flow aloft over
the local area while the surface high also remains over the area
before slowly shifting into the W Atlantic late weekend into early
next week. Setup will favor continued rain-free conditions into
next week while temps gradually moderate back toward climatic
normals, with lows mostly in the 40s/lower 50s Thu-Fri mornings
continuing to warm back into mostly the 50s over the weekend,
while highs warm from mostly the 70s Thu-Fri into the upper
70s/lower 80s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions through the period with winds staying at or below
10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

High pressure over the waters with generally north to northeast
winds 10-15 knots or less and seas abating to 2 feet or less by
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

High pressure over the region as dry conditions with critical
afternoon RHs remain in place through mid week with light winds
diminishing the fire weather threat. RH and temps slowly increase
late week and into the weekend as moisture gradually recovers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  50  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  75  54  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  72  47  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  72  50  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  69  38  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  69  56  74  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Pasco-Sumter.

     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Davis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis