197
FXUS62 KTBW 161855
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Deep moisture, precipitable water around 2.0 inches, will remain
across much of the area through Monday, with the slightly less
across southwest Florida. A light easterly flow will continue
which will allow for a decent sea breeze each afternoon and this
combined with daytime heating will lead to scattered to numerous
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with activity
drifting west out into the Gulf each night.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, some drier air will try to move in
from the northeast, but this depends a lot on the track of Erin.
If it tracks closer to the southeast U.S. then we`ll see more
drier air wrapping southward around it into the Florida peninsula,
but if it stays further out we`ll see less. For now it looks like
we`ll have enough moisture for at least scattered afternoon and
evening convection each of these days with a more northeast to
north flow.

For the Thursday into next weekend the flow will shift to a more
westerly direction with plenty of moisture remaining across the
region for scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, this
flow (Regime 4) will favor the interior and eastern half of the
Florida peninsula for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, with
isolated to scattered convection over the eastern Gulf waters
moving onshore during the late night and morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into this evening
which could cause some MVFR/local IFR conditions along with gusty
erratic winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the TAF forecast period. Light winds will become west
northwest with the sea breeze at the TAF sites near the coast this
afternoon, then become light again later this evening into Sunday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Relatively light east winds will turn onshore with the sea breeze
each day through Monday, remaining below headlines. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Gulf during
the nighttime and early morning hours, then most activity will
shift over land through the rest of each day. By the middle of
next week a more north to northeast flow will setup, but still be
rather light with winds 10 knots or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

No fire weather concerns for the next several days as relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels and winds less
than 10 mph, except gusty and erratic in the vicinity of showers
and thunderstorms. Warm and humid summertime conditions will
continue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  79  93 /  40  70  30  70
FMY  78  93  77  93 /  30  60  20  60
GIF  78  95  77  95 /  40  70  20  70
SRQ  77  93  76  92 /  30  50  30  70
BKV  75  93  74  93 /  50  70  30  70
SPG  80  91  79  90 /  40  60  40  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Hardee-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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