865
FXUS62 KTBW 221758
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

W/SW flow in place across the area will continue through the
weekend as a boundary lingers across north Florida and the SE US
and the ridge axis remains across the FL Straits. This will keep
morning and early afternoon timing for convection. A slight risk
for excessive rainfall will be in place for tomorrow for the
northern Nature Coast, as the area has received plenty of rainfall
today and grounds are saturated.

The boundary then shifts to across the southern half of Florida
for the first half of next week, keeping deep moisture across
the area and the earlier storm timing. Winds transition back to
the E/SE for the rest of the week, shifting the main convection
timing to the afternoon and evening with the seabreeze.
Temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for
highs, with mid 70s to lower 80s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Most convection has shifted to the east of the terminals but some
lingering storms coming in from the Gulf are possible for another
couple hours. Winds remain from the W/SW with winds around
08-10kts lowering to around 4-6kts for the overnight hours. VFR
will prevail, but MVFR to IFR possible in storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

W/SW flow will continue across the waters, keeping the best
chances for convection over the waters mainly in the overnight
and morning hours. Winds transition back to the E/SE mid-week,
shifting storm timing more to the evening and overnight hours as
storms push offshore. Winds remain below any headlines through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each day
through mid-next-week beginning along the coast and shifting
inland through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  89  81  90 /  50  80  50  70
FMY  79  91  79  91 /  30  70  20  50
GIF  76  91  77  91 /  40  80  20  60
SRQ  79  90  79  90 /  50  80  50  70
BKV  75  90  74  88 /  50  80  50  60
SPG  80  89  79  87 /  50  80  50  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce