385
FXUS62 KTBW 040012
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
812 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Evening ACARS soundings continue show a very saturated atmosphere
with PWATs exceeding 2 inches. This is above the 90th percentile for
the day. With ample moisture and weak instability with the trough
axis in the vicinity, showers and thunderstorms have continued to
form across the region. While this activity should become more
isolated in nature over the next few hours inland, there could
continue to be some lingering showers and perhaps thunderstorms
through the evening and overnight - especially along the coast.

The primary concern will continue to be heavy rainfall with an
overall light flow and saturated column. There is the possibility of
some training cells if storms continue to backbuild along slowly-
meandering boundaries across the region. However, this is likely to
only occur in localized areas, with the most greatest areas for
concern in urban spots or locations with poor drainage.

The current forecast is pretty consistent with this, but will
continue to monitor through the evening and overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The atmosphere remains primed for convection into the weekend. With
an axis of deep moisture and instability across the region, it is
likely that storms will remain in the vicinity of coastal
terminals for most of the next 24 to 30 hours. With weaker overnight
instability, these should - for the most part - be showers
overnight. Inland terminals are unlikely to see much overnight. Once
the sun starts to rise tomorrow, though, thunderstorms will again be
more likely. As storms inevitably move over terminals, there will be
periods of gusty winds and MVFR or even IFR conditions. However, it
is impossible to narrow down a specific window when this is more
likely. Thus, TAFs will be monitored and TEMPOS added when it
becomes more apparent that thunderstorms will impact a terminals
directly.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis depicts an
upper level low over Florida with a ridge to the east and west. At
the surface, there is a stalled boundary to the north near the
Florida panhandle.  The radar early this afternoon is less
impressive than expected with scattered showers with a few rumbles
of thunder. MOisture remains elevated near the 95th percentile for
early July. This moisture is leading to more widespread cloud
cover across the region. The cloud cover is keeping temperatures
on the cooler side with most locations currently in the low 80s
early this afternoon. Due to the lack of precipitation
development, the excessive rainfall outlook has been downgraded
from a slight risk to a marginal risk. PW values are more than
sufficient for any storms to drop a quick 2 to 3 inches. There was
a storm earlier this morning that did realize this potential in
Pinellas county but there have not been any storms with rainfall
rates near these levels since.

The weather pattern remains rather similar going into the holiday
weekend. Due to this, PoPs will remain elevated but it will not rain
all day are be a complete wash out. With the high PW values, any
storms that do develop will be able to produce heavy rainfall rates
that may lead to localized flooding generally in areas of poor
drainage. High temperatures will be on the cooler side in the mid to
upper 80s. Rainfall amounts through the holiday weekend will range
from 1 to 4 inches with a low (less than 10% chance) of amounts up
to 6 inches. The upper level low begins to lift of the region on
Sunday as the ridge begins to build back into the region. This will
lead to slightly lowers PoPs and warmer temperatures on Sunday.

Going into the next week, there will be a shift into seabreeze
behavior as the low dissipates and ridging resumes. This will
consist of southwesterly winds Monday and westerly ones going
forward, upholding scattered to numerous showers/storms in the
late morning and afternoons which build up inland toward the early
evening. With that, temperatures will broadly elevate into the
upper 80s and lower 90s as next week proceeds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Southwesterly winds between 10 to 15 knots remain in place for
the remainder of the week before calming down to 5 to 10 knots
over the weekend. A stalled out front over the area will help to
enhance shower and thunderstorm development for the period. Higher
waves and winds are possible near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Elevated moisture will lead to widespread precipitation throughout the
holiday weekend. A shift to a more typical summertime seabreeze regime
will return early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  89  77  89 /  60  70  70  80
FMY  77  89  76  89 /  60  60  60  70
GIF  75  89  75  89 /  60  70  40  80
SRQ  78  89  76  89 /  70  70  70  70
BKV  73  90  72  89 /  60  60  50  80
SPG  78  87  77  87 /  70  70  70  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW
DECISION SUPPORT...TBW
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW