211
FXUS62 KTBW 041725
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
125 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Scattered showers and isolated storms this morning have mainly
occurred around the Tampa Bay area and areas further south where
the low level flow is mostly onshore, though the flow shifts more
northeasterly across northern portions of the forecast area in
closer proximity to the remnants of a stalled frontal boundary.
The overall environment remains very moist with the 12Z KTBW RAOB
sampling a PWAT value of 2.12" and this value is over the 90th
percentile for early July but falls a bit short of the daily
maximum. Either way, deep tropical moisture remains in place and
will combine with diurnal heating and the aforementioned remnant
frontal boundary to support another day of elevated rain chances
with low level southwest flow roughly from I-4 southward focusing
better storm chances in the interior areas so this may provide
some opportunity to enjoy outdoor activities for holiday
festivities in southern portions of the TBW CWA this evening but
this very moist air mass can still generate scattered pulse
convection at any time so not a rain-free scenario by any means.
Meanwhile, further north across the Nature Coast, recent hi-res
guidance has been coming into better agreement on the idea of an
area of convection developing around north central FL and dropping
to the south-southwest through late evening, possibly even moving
through the Tampa Bay area before weakening and/or moving
offshore. Forecast confidence in the exact evolution of this
possible area of convection is not particularly high but given the
closer proximity of the remnant boundary in the area and a
dominant Atlantic sea breeze spreading inland in the northeast
flow regime, this scenario certainly appears reasonable and will
be something that will need to be monitored for holiday
festivities from the Tampa Bay metro area northward into the
Nature Coast region.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Showers and storms have been filtering through the west-central
coast this morning. Area of low pressure continues to pull
moisture across the peninsula supporting periods of rain through
the period. Guidance keep PW values over 2 inches during this
time. Additional training of storms is possible today, which could
result in isolated minor flooding. Meanwhile, cloud coverage
should keep afternoon highs from getting above the upper 80s
today and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN-THU)...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

By early next week, slightly drier air gradually starts to wrap
into the area as the trough moves north to northeast. This will
bring rain coverage down. However, southwesterly winds prevail with
scattered to numerous showers and storms shifting onshore in the
late morning and early afternoon, building into the interior
through early evening. Temperatures will also increase gradually
getting back into the 90s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Deep tropical moisture remains in place with scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
possible through this tonight across the region. Greatest precipitation
coverage may occur inland through the remainder of the day as
onshore flow prevails but still can`t rule out some occasional
restrictions due to TSRA at times at coastal terminals either.
Rain chances will then decrease briefly by late evening before
possible redevelopment of showers/storms occurs by Saturday
morning into early afternoon with onshore flow continuing into
tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A stalled frontal boundary will continue to support shower and
thunderstorm development through the weekend. Southwesterly winds
between 10 to 15 knots remain in place today before decreasing to
5 to 10 knots over the weekend. SLightly drier air begins to move
behind the disturbance, which will help bring rain chances down
some going into early next week. Higher waves and winds are
possible near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Area of low pressure continues to bring ample moisture across the
state supporting periods of showers and storms through the period.
Southwesterly winds will gradually become northerly as low pressure
moves away, before shifting southwesterly again for the weekend. No
fire weather concerns are anticipated during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  89  78  89 /  70  80  50  70
FMY  77  90  77  91 /  50  70  30  60
GIF  74  90  75  90 /  50  80  30  70
SRQ  75  89  77  89 /  60  80  50  70
BKV  72  90  73  89 /  50  80  40  80
SPG  77  87  78  87 /  70  80  60  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley