936
FXUS62 KTBW 170725
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
325 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will move west across
  southwest Florida today, while drier air to the north will keep
  rain chances limited across much of west central Florida.

- Gusty east to northeast winds will produce hazardous marine
  conditions into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Currently at the surface, an elongated ridge of high pressure is
stretched out along and east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast while broad
low pressure holds over the Caribbean Sea. This pattern is favoring
breezy east flow across the Florida Peninsula, which is pulling a
pocket of dry air into northern Florida from the western
Atlantic. As a result, rain coverage this afternoon is expected
to be quite limited for mid September, with much of the area
forecast to remain rain free. However, moisture will be slightly
more favorable over southwest Florida, allowing for a few showers
or storms to push west into the area during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Moisture will begin to work back into the
area Friday and Saturday from south to north, with scattered to
numerous storms forecast from around Interstate 4 south on Friday,
then across the entire forecast area on Saturday. Otherwise, dew
points will be slightly lower for the next few days, mainly over
the Nature Coast counties and the northern half of the forecast
area, and conditions should feel a bit less humid than the first
half of the month did.

During the rest of the weekend and into the first half of next week,
atmospheric moisture will continue to build as an upper level low
crosses the Florida Peninsula and lingers over the eastern Gulf,
with PWAT values building to around 2.0-2.25 inches. As a result,
storm coverage and rain totals will continue to rise across the
area, with numerous to widespread thunderstorms developing each day.
Under light easterly flow, storms will generally develop over the
eastern half of the Peninsula during the morning and early
afternoon, shifting west into the area during the afternoon and
early evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will hold through the morning, although some
isolated MVFR ceilings will be possible, mainly over southwest
Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will then move west across southwest Florida through
the afternoon hours, potentially causing brief flight category
disruptions. Farther north around the Tampa Bay, rain chances are
too low to mention in the TAFs, but a stray shower or two cannot
be completely ruled out.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

With high pressure holding north of the waters, breezy east and
northeast winds will continue to increase to advisory levels at
times today and into tonight. Winds will subside overnight and into
Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes, with winds generally
forecast to remain around 15 knots or less Friday through early next
week. However, thunderstorm coverage will increase through the
weekend, bringing locally higher winds and rough seas in the
vicinity of daily thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Drier air holding over the area today will limit rain chances for
much of the area, although scattered showers and storms will
still be possible over parts of southwest Florida, mainly in the
afternoon. Moisture will begin to return on Friday from the south,
with rain chances returning to much of the area with the exception
of the Nature Coast counties. No humidity concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  74  90  75 /  10   0  40  10
FMY  90  74  90  74 /  40  10  60  20
GIF  90  73  91  72 /  10   0  30   0
SRQ  92  74  92  74 /  10   0  40  20
BKV  90  70  91  70 /   0   0  20   0
SPG  90  76  91  76 /  10   0  40  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

$$

Fleming