542
FXUS62 KTBW 232356
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
756 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 744 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025
Southwest flow persists over west central and southwest Florida
creating a very wet pattern across the region...which will
continue into Sunday. Area of light rain across Lee county will
dissipate/move south of the region over the next hour or two.
Isolated showers were also occurring across the northern nature
coast.

Atmosphere across much of west central Florida is rather stable
attm due to the large area of showers and storms that moved
across the region this afternoon. However, atmosphere will
gradually destabilize over the next several hours with scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over the
coastal waters around or shortly after midnight...which will move
locally onshore. Coverage will likely increase through the late
night/early morning hours and spread over west central and
southwest Florida. Locally heavy rain will again be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A rainy start to the weekend thanks to a stationary boundary hanging
out over north FL. Rounds of rain and storms will continue to move
onshore through the rest of the afternoon and early evening. With
multiple rounds of showers and storms some areas could experience
localized flooding. Remember, turn around, don`t drown when you
come across water on the roads. Conditions will quiet overnight
overland, however showers and storms will continue to develop over
the waters with a few possibly making to the coast as the night
goes on. Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers are expected
once again tomorrow beginning along the coast and moving inland.
With the rain coverage the next couple of days, temperatures are
also expected to be just below normal.

By Monday, the stationary boundary drifts further south and east of
Florida and high pressure will build in. This will finally change
the flow from onshore to more northerly. A bit of dry air will also
filter in by midweek, slightly dropping dew points and humidity.
Rain chances will also decrease as we move back into a typical
summertime pattern with storms developing along sea breeze
convergence.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025
VFR CIGs will persist at all terminals tonight and Sunday. Periods
of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact all terminals for
several hours late tonight and Sunday with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR
VSBYs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Less than ideal marine conditions continue today and tomorrow as
multiple rounds of showers and storms develop and move over the
waters. Conditions begin to improve by Monday as we transition back
to a more typical summertime pattern

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected today and
tomorrow. No major fire weather concerns as moisture remains
abundant.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  89  81  91 /  60  80  40  60
FMY  79  90  78  91 /  50  70  30  40
GIF  77  90  77  92 /  40  80  20  60
SRQ  79  89  78  90 /  60  80  50  60
BKV  74  88  74  90 /  50  70  40  50
SPG  79  86  79  88 /  60  80  50  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Jillson
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Jillson