Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
302 FXUS62 KTBW 170024 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 824 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions possible into Saturday && .UPDATE... Pattern is slow to change with upper ridging from the SE Gulf into the Upper Mississippi River Valley keeping very dry air over the region. The large area of surface high pressure stretches down the Eastern US with tightening pressure gradient over the FL Peninsula to produce occasionally gusty NE-E winds especially over marine waters to produce hazardous conditions, otherwise a dry night and comfortable Fri morning temps. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Dry VRF conditions through the period with generally light NE winds and a FEW strato cu around 04k ft. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure remains aloft over the southeastern U.S. this afternoon while surface high pressure near the Great Lakes ridges southward. These features will slowly shift eastward over the next couple of days as a trough digs through the central U.S. and a surface frontal boundary moves into the southeast. This front will be the only (relatively) interesting thing in the forecast for the next week. Over the past few days, models were showing a slight chance for some showers, but these have continued to back off on the amount of moisture available, so for now, we will show barely a rain chance for the very northern part of the forecast area Sunday afternoon. High pressure builds in over the southeast behind the boundary and quickly shifts eastward, keeping warm and dry conditions in the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Northeast to east winds continue for the next few days, increasing to exercise caution levels each night. No headlines are expected during the daytime hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 No fire weather concerns for the next few days as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 70 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 69 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 68 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 68 87 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 62 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 71 84 68 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt