297
FXUS62 KTBW 261911
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
311 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Convection beginning to pop up here and there thanks to daytime
heating. Overall coverage not that great at this time though as
precipitable water is only around 1.5 inches. However, we do have
rather cold mid level temperatures around -9C associated with the
upper level low over the area and this will help to destabilize
the atmosphere leading to more numerous showers and thunderstorms
later this afternoon and evening. Highest coverage should be along
the coastal counties later this afternoon and evening where the
sea breeze will be located, then any convection should drift west
offshore by later this evening. Overnight the low level flow will
begin to shift to more southerly which could bring a few
showers/storms back to the coastal areas toward morning.

For Friday the transition to southwesterly flow (Regime 4) will
get underway as the ridge axis shifts to across the southern half
of the Florida peninsula. This overall pattern looks to hold into
the middle of next week which favors the highest rain chances
over the eastern half of the Florida peninsula, as well as into
southwest Florida which will be near the axis. However, over the
weekend the upper level low will linger over the southeast U.S.
keeping some rather cool mid-level temperatures across the
area. Then as we move into the first half of next week some upper
level troughing will link up with this low with a series of
shortwaves moving through it. This will lead to higher rain
chances across the northern waters and Nature Coast during this
period as we should see some late night and morning convection
develop over the gulf waters and move onshore each day. Highest
rain chances will be across the Nature Coast and then moving into
the eastern half of the peninsula and southwest Florida during the
late afternoon and evening each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF forecast
period, but scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon and evening causing MVFR/local IFR
conditions. East to southeast winds at 5 to 7 knots are expected
this afternoon, but may shift to southwest to west for a short
time at SRQ as the sea breeze develops. Gusty erratic winds will
be possible near any showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Easterly flow early tonight will begin to transition to southwest
to west Friday through early next week as the ridge axis sets up
across south Florida. Scattered to numerous showers are expected
to move west off the land this evening. Then over the next few
days as the flow shifts to southwest to west the better chances
of showers and thunderstorms will shift to during the late night
and morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a
minimum. Winds will remain less than 15 mph, except gusty and
erratic in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  79  91 /  40  50  30  60
FMY  74  92  77  94 /  50  60  20  60
GIF  74  94  75  93 /  30  70  30  70
SRQ  74  90  77  91 /  50  50  30  50
BKV  70  92  72  92 /  40  50  30  60
SPG  77  89  79  88 /  50  50  30  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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