247
FXUS62 KTBW 111200
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery is beginning to show some slightly
drier air working into the region. Early 12Z sounding data further
supports this, with a noticeably wider T/Td spread than this time
yesterday. Model PWATs suggest that the final value should probably
come in somewhere between 1.7 and 1.9, which would be consistent
with the profile observed so far. Thus, today should be a transition
back towards a more typical summertime pattern across the region.

Given that there is still a moisture gradient farther to the west,
the weak instability and southerly flow continues to support coastal
shower activity this morning. However, the increasingly SE flow
suggests that this activity should mostly remain offshore. The most
likely window for thunderstorms on land will be in the more typical
afternoon/evening time-frame, with activity consolidating along the
FL West coast towards sunset. This is consistent with the current
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 759 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

While there are a few coastal showers this morning in the vicinity
of SRQ, the expectation overall is for a more typical summertime
pattern today. This favors afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms that consolidate along the FL West Coast. The
strongest storms (and thus the highest potential for impacts) are
likely from 20Z to 23Z or so, before activity diminishes overnight.
As this pattern is settling in for the next few days, a similar
setup is expected through the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing deep moisture
holding over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf as a weakening
surface trough dissipates over the central Gulf and lifts out to the
northwest. As the trough departs, a somewhat drier airmass will fill
in from the southeast as a surface ridge sets up north of Florida.
While this drier air will not be enough to suppress daily
thunderstorms entirely, it is expected to knock daily rain totals
down from what has been seen over the last few days and limit the
threat of additional flooding. That said, enough moisture will be
available to fuel numerous thunderstorms each day this week under
southeasterly flow, with convection lingering over the eastern
Gulf during the overnight and early morning hours, then scattered
to numerous storms firing up over the Florida Peninsula during the
afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday through the upcoming weekend, an upper/mid level ridge
will build in aloft of Florida, providing broad subsidence and
allowing temperatures to begin to climb upwards. Highs will top
out in the mid 90s each day Tuesday through next weekend, with
apparent temperatures approaching heat advisory thresholds each
afternoon during the second half of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A weakening tropical wave over the central Gulf is keeping deep
moisture over the area this morning, although a somewhat drier
airmass will fill in from the east this afternoon and evening.
Enough moisture will remain in place for numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day this week. Under southeast flow, storms will
linger over the eastern Gulf during the overnight and early morning
hours each day, then land based storms will push west into the
coastal waters during the late afternoon and early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Deep moisture will hold over the area through the next couple of
days, with numerous showers developing each day, mainly in the
afternoon and early evening hours. No humidity concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  93  80 /  60  30  60  30
FMY  92  76  94  77 /  70  30  80  30
GIF  93  76  94  76 /  60  20  70  10
SRQ  92  76  93  76 /  60  30  60  40
BKV  92  74  93  74 /  60  20  60  20
SPG  89  78  91  79 /  60  30  60  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Close