662
FXUS62 KTBW 092356
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
756 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...


.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 750 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

 - Hazardous marine conditions will continue into the weekend.

 - Limited heat risk with warm and humid conditions on Friday.

 - Drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected this weekend
   into the first half of next week.


.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A few bands of mainly showers with an occasional bolt of lightning
continue this evening across parts of the area as breezy NE flow
pushes Atlantic moisture across the peninsula. Latest surface
analysis places a frontal boundary across the northern peninsula
south of an expansive area of high pressure centered over the E
Great Lakes/SE Canada. To the south of the surface high/frontal
boundary tandem is a surface trough extending northeast from the
far NW Caribbean across the FL Straits and far SEFL peninsula
into the W Atlantic. The resulting NE flow setup will continue
into Friday, with occasional breeziness during the afternoon
accompanied by another round of showers and a few storms, again
favoring the interior and SWFL. Afternoon highs will continue the
gradual cooling trend, particularly across the Nature Coast with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s as a result of the frontal
boundary sagging south across the area, with mid to upper 80s
elsewhere across the area.

Minor tweaks were made to the evening forecast PoPs to account
for the latest radar trends and obs, otherwise the forecast
remains on track with no additional adjustments necessary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
A mid/upper-level trough is digging into the southeast this
afternoon while at the surface, high pressure is centered over the
Great Lakes region and a frontal boundary is moving into northern
Florida. The pressure gradient remains a bit tight, with gusty
northeast winds continuing to bring some fast-moving showers and a
few storms east to west through the rest of the day. For tonight
into Friday, the trough will continue to dig and try to cut off with
low pressure starting to take shape off the Florida east coast. This
will lead to pretty similar conditions to today, with the highest
rain chances over the interior and southwest Florida.

Low pressure off the northeast Florida coast really takes shape on
Saturday and quickly moves up the eastern seaboard through the
weekend. Drier air will move into the region starting Saturday
(though there will still be some lingering shower activity), but
then on Sunday and into next week, rain chances will be virtually
zero as high pressure settles over the region. We will also get our
first taste of Florida fall as a slightly cooler air mass with
lower dew points moves over the region for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR expected to open the period followed by MVFR cigs likely
developing overnight and persisting through much of the morning
before lifting generally by early afternoon. Afternoon and
evening VCSH for LAL and late afternoon through evening VCTS
across SWFL terminals, accompanied by associated cig/vis
restrictions when affecting terminals. While still a bit
inconsistent, guidance indicates MVFR cigs again developing at
TPA/PIE on Friday evening into the overnight period, but for now
will await higher confidence before including mention.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Breezy northeast winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels
for the waters around Tampa Bay northward, with elevated winds
continuing through Saturday. For the waters off the southwest
Florida coast, winds will also be elevated, but more in the exercise
caution range. Winds start to relax on Sunday and will then remain
below headlines through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Northeast winds will increase and become gusty through Friday with
warm and humid conditions continuing. Scattered and fast-moving
showers with a few storms are expected each afternoon and evening
mainly over the interior and southwest Florida region, then a cold
front moves through this weekend, bringing drier air over the
region. Despite this, relative humidity values are expected to
remain above critical levels, with no fire weather concerns. No
significant fog is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  87  71  84 /  20  40  10  10
FMY  74  87  71  85 /  40  50  20  20
GIF  73  85  70  84 /  40  60  20  20
SRQ  73  88  71  85 /  20  40  10  10
BKV  71  84  67  82 /  20  40  20  10
SPG  74  84  71  82 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn