309
FXUS62 KTBW 140704
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
304 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The big feature through through Saturday will be a strong high
pressure overhead. This will result in some rather light flow across
the area causing any storms that due form to be slow moving. Along
with the high pressure we are also seeing some slightly drier air
across the peninsula. This will result in fewer showers and
storms but still keeping 40 to 50 percent chance of rain across
the area.

By Sunday and into early next week we will see some upper level
troughing moving into the area and increasing moisture. PW look to
get around 2.25 which will result in more widespread showers and
storms from Sunday through next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Slightly drier air in the mid latitudes will result in fewer
storms developing this afternoon. Still kept VCTS at all airports
however chances are to low to add any TEMPO groups in. Winds
should generally stay below 10 knots with VFR conditions outside
of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Ridging overhead will keep winds around 5 to 10 knots
through the period. We will see westerly winds today before shifting
north and northeast through Monday. Storms will be most likely
overnight along the land breeze and in the evening when storms push
off the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at
a minimum.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  80  94  81 /  50  10  50  20
FMY  93  78  94  78 /  50  20  50  20
GIF  95  78  96  79 /  60  20  50  10
SRQ  92  79  93  78 /  40  20  40  30
BKV  93  75  94  76 /  40  10  50  20
SPG  91  82  91  81 /  40  10  40  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley