149
FXUS62 KTBW 201054
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
654 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds
remain generally southeast with some gusts to 20-25 knots, but
will then lighten some and try to turn south/southwest and then
northwest late in the day with the sea breeze.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida
peninsula through the upcoming week. The U/L ridge will suppress
the westerlies north of the forecast area, with very warm dry
conditions persisting across west central and southwest Florida
each day. The surface ridge axis will remain north of the region
through the period which will keep boundary layer flow from the
east to southeast. Gradient will remain rather tight today which
will create breezy conditions. Given the dry breezy conditions,
a red flag warning has been issued for all counties of west
central and southwest Florida with the exception of Pinellas.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025
High pressure will hold over the waters through the upcoming week.
Rather tight gradient combined with an evening easterly surge most
nights will create periods of exercise caution conditions on
portions of the waters each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025
Dry air will hold over the region today with minimum relative
humidity values dropping below critical levels across all of west
central and southwest Florida with the exception of
Pinellas...where RH values will still drop into the upper
30s/lower 40s. Gusty east to southeast winds will develop today
and will be at or slightly above critical levels. For this reason,
a red flag warning has been issued for all counties with the
exception of Pinellas.

Similar low RH`s will develop Monday afternoon, however gradient
is expected to weaken a bit which should keep winds below critical
levels Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  69  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  90  66  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  89  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  89  66  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  91  60  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  86  70  86  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Aviation...Carlisle
Previous...Oglesby