Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
798 FXUS62 KTBW 140619 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 119 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain-free conditions and gradually warming temperatures through the weekend. - Patchy overnight fog development possible through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 Surface high pressure remains over the area with continued rain- free conditions and relatively light winds. Gradually increasing temps and moisture through the forecast period will be accompanied by the potential for overnight fog development, otherwise little else in the way of significant weather expected through the weekend into next week. A frontal boundary dropping into the SE U.S. late weekend into early next week will suppress the surface ridge axis southward across the peninsula, but no change in ambient conditions expected. Still a few cool mornings ahead, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s today and Saturday, warming into mostly the 50s by Sunday through early next week before warming further into the upper 50s to lower 60s by mid week. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s today through the weekend before creeping up into the lower to mid 80s by mid week. Shower chances remain slim to none through the period, with perhaps a slight chance of a shower arriving late next week near the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 VFR expected through the period with NE winds generally less than 10 knots, highest in the afternoon and turning onshore at northern coastal terminals. Patchy late night/early morning fog potential exists that may introduce brief vsby restrictions, but inclusion not warranted currently given low confidence. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 High pressure holds over the waters through the weekend with continued rain-free conditions. Winds north to northeast less than 15 knots, except shifting onshore near the coast during the afternoons, with seas 2 feet or less. Winds shift more westerly across the northern waters late weekend into early next week as the high drifts south across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 High pressure holds through the weekend with continued rain-free conditions. RHs generally remain above critical levels, except across parts of the northern Nature Coast this afternoon, with sustained 20ft winds less than 15 mph and Low Sig Fire Potential risk, resulting in minimal fire weather concerns into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 58 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 80 57 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 79 55 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 78 57 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 78 48 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 77 61 78 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Hurt