771
FXUS62 KTBW 030603
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
203 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Broad ridging is stretching across the FL peninsula as a trough
axis propagates off the NE Coast. Pushed south by the trough, a
weak frontal boundary has stalled over N FL, with some convection
continuing to linger early this morning in the vicinity of the
boundary over the Nature Coast. South of the boundary, weak
surface high pressure is still in control, with a warm, humid
airmass situated over the state.

While water vapor satellite imagery does show that additional mid-
level moisture has returned over the region, there are still dry
pockets beneath this layer, especially in the 500mb-700mb layer.
Thus, the PWAT of almost 2 inches does not tell the full story
because the moisture content is not distributed uniformly through
the column. These dry pockets will suppress activity, especially
closer to the coast where overall forcing will be more limited.
There are still likely to be thunderstorms in proximity to where
boundary collisions take place, primarily over the interior. These
boundary collisions will squeeze the moisture and favor updrafts
punching through dry layers to still develop into thunderstorms.

For most people, though, it`ll be another dry day. At least some
additional mid and high clouds should help suppress temperatures a
slight bit, once again negating the need for a heat advisory.
Nevertheless, it will be another hot Florida day - just once again
a day that is more typical for August.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Looking ahead to the remainder of the week, the synoptic pattern
continues to look fairly locked in as the subtropical ridge builds
back over the FL peninsula and a trough axis stalls out over the
Mississippi River basin with strong ridging over the SW CONUS.
This will keep the stationary boundary from washing out, leading
to enhanced rain chances in N Florida, but more typical conditions
across West Central and SWFL. With the ridge building back
overhead, the notable adjustment will be for a more light and
variable flow to become dominant by early to mid-week. This will
favor slow and erratic storm motions as sea breeze boundaries push
inland and meet over the interior by late afternoon or early
evening.

With pockets of SAL still noted across much of the Caribbean, a
light SE flow could usher in pockets of this through the week to
to suppress thunderstorm activity somewhat at times. However,
there is still enough uncertainty to keep the forecast near climo
rather than to lean to far into a drier setup. Regardless,
conditions will continue to be pretty typical overall for summer
with some thunderstorm activity each day, and high temps in the
90s away from the immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

With a light WSW flow continuing today and another pocket of dry air
moving across the region, the bulk of the thunderstorm activity
should be over the interior and east of terminals. A higher
likelihood of thunderstorm impacts mainly during the afternoon hours
will return during the work week as deeper moisture is once again
favored. Overall, though, conditions will remain VFR outside of
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201
 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to be favored
during the overnight and morning hours across coastal waters
through the remainder of the weekend. As high pressure re-centers
over the Florida peninsula during the week, the overall flow will
become even lighter and more variable, favoring almost calm seas
that are less than a foot. In response to this change,
thunderstorms will be more likely near the coast in the afternoon,
with the potential for some of these storms to drift offshore
during the evening hours by the middle of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Today is favored to be the driest day for the week ahead, with a
pocket of drier air suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity
near the coast once again. As the work week progresses, thunderstorm
activity looks to increase again, with a light and variable flow
settling back in with high pressure in control. Winds should shift
to a westerly direction as the sea breeze moves inland during the
afternoon each day. With RH values well above critical thresholds,
there are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  81  94  81 /  20  20  50  30
FMY  94  78  94  78 /  40  20  50  30
GIF  95  78  96  77 /  30  20  60  40
SRQ  92  78  93  78 /  20  20  40  30
BKV  93  74  94  74 /  30  10  50  40
SPG  90  81  91  80 /  20  20  50  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery