608
FXUS62 KTBW 181751
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
151 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Weak ridging is stretched across the FL peninsula as surface high
pressure remains in control. A very weak trough axis is just off the
FL West Coast, with a cluster of persistent thunderstorms over the
NE Gulf off the FL Big Bend region. The 12Z sounding came in with a
PWAT of 2.06 inches. Climatologically, this places today in the 75th
percentile as far as moisture goes. The sfc-3km flow was only 3
knots, supporting the expectation of a light, variable, sea breeze-
driven flow that continues through the remainder of the day. This
combo favors scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across
the peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon, favoring
coastal areas early before transitioning inland by mid-to-late
afternoon. Heavy rainfall is the primary concern  - although
isolated strong wind gusts cannot be completely ruled out. With a
500mb temp of -6C and a FZL of almost 17kft, hail is not a concern.

Until storms develop, hot and humid conditions continue. Temperatures
are already climbing into the 90s. With the coast now seeing some
storms there will be some cooling. However, the interior continues
to heat up with likely another couple hours before thunderstorms
become more widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Over the next couple days, Hurricane Erin will pass to the east of
the FL peninsula. This will erode the ridge axis as the storm
continues to curve and stay out to sea. While Erin is expected to
bring large, powerful swells to the east coast, the distance from
the storm does not support any significant impacts to West
Central and SWFL. If anything, the main impact is favored to be
reduced rain chances and maybe a couple slightly hotter days,
especially on Wednesday as the western half of the peninsula is
favored to be in the subsidence region on the west side of the
storm.

As Erin continues to lift northward, a fetch of moisture feeding
into the storm looks to be dragged over the state as the winds veer
to the WSW. This will again favor higher rain chances for the end of
the week, and the potential for earlier thunderstorms along the FL
West Coast especially. It also favors warmer overnight lows as the
warm, moist air from the Gulf is pulled onshore.

By the weekend, weak ridging looks to build back in and the overall
synoptic pattern trends back closer to normal. While there are
discrepancies about whether the mean low-level flow is WSW or ESE,
the end-result is that the flow should be rather light, favoring
convective initiation along sea breeze boundaries mainly in the
afternoon and evening. If there is a little more of a WSW component,
then that could be a littler earlier. If it is ESE, then later in
the afternoon is more likely. Overall, though, the pattern looks to
be such that these nuances won`t really have a major impact on the
forecast. Summer weather will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Thunderstorms continue to be the primary impact, with brief windows
of MVFR to IFR and gusty, erratic winds possible each day. However,
some drier air working into the region on the west side of Hurricane
Erin favors lower rain chances for the next couple days. Nevertheless,
a window will exist for thunderstorms beginning around 17Z and lasting
anywhere from 22Z to 0Z. By late week, a WSW flow settling into the
region will favor earlier timing for thunderstorms, and an
overall higher chance for impacts due to the increased moisture
and instability accompanying the wind shift.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

While a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible off the coast
through the evening, the overall expectation is for most of
thunderstorm activity to be confined to inshore waters and over
land. As the flow transitions to an ENE flow tomorrow, a few storms
could move offshore later in the day, but overall storm coverage
should continue to be lower through Wednesday. By late week, though,
rain chances increase across Gulf waters as a WSW flow settles in
and greater moisture returns. Winds remain under 15 knots through
the period, keeping seas generally light outside of thunderstorms. A
slight increase to around 2 feet is possible in the evenings as
winds pick up from the east after the sea breeze collapses.
Additionally, a WSW flow allowing for a longer fetch of wind over
the waters could yield seas of up to around 2 feet late in the week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Tomorrow and especially Wednesday are the driest days of the week as
Erin passes to the east. Given the distance from the storm, winds
are expected to remain light, and low-level moisture will still
remain well above critical thresholds. Otherwise, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms should be expected each day, especially
during the afternoon hours. However, higher rain chances are in
the forecast along the coast for Thursday and Friday mornings with
a WSW wind flow. Overall, fire weather concerns are low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  95  79  94 /  40  50  20  30
FMY  77  94  77  93 /  40  60  20  40
GIF  77  95  77  95 /  30  50  10  60
SRQ  76  94  77  92 /  40  50  30  30
BKV  74  94  73  94 /  30  50  10  40
SPG  79  91  79  90 /  40  50  30  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery