285
FXUS62 KTBW 021209
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
809 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A fairly quiet start to our Tuesday with low clouds present in
some areas. Meanwhile, broad troughiness aloft continues along
the East Coast with a weak area of low pressure, and frontal
boundary across southern portions of the peninsula. In response,
higher moisture is anticipated especially along and south of the
I-4 corridor through the period. This should support an increase
in showers and storm coverage this afternoon, though northeasterly
flow usually helps dry out conditions at the surface, which could
act as a limiting factor.

By Wednesday, the aforementioned surface low should shift
offshore supporting slightly stronger northeasterly winds and
pockets of drier air will attempt to their way across the CWA. As
a result, rain chances/coverage decrease a little. Afternoon
temperatures during this time will be around 90 degrees with
overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s north to mid 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

During the long term, troughiness is enhanced by Canadian low that
pushes across the Great Lakes going into Thursday. This finally
allows U/L low to slide out as high pressure begins to build at
the surface. Periods of showers and storms will be determined by
the moisture availability. Areas along the Nature Coast will
likely not have much coverage, while area south of Tampa Bay could
see more activity during on Friday and through the weekend.

In terms of temperatures, conditions should remain on the warm
and humid with highs in the low 90s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 803 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Slightly drier air wrapping around a low pressure off the east
coast should keep storms away from our northern coastal sites.
Still can`t rule out a stray shower or two but chances to low to
include in TAF. For our other sites storms look to develop in the
evening hours from 22z-00z. Winds will remain northerly throughout
the day with VFR outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

An area of low pressure and associated cold front to the south
will keep NE winds around 15 kts today. Then, winds decrease
gradually into mid to late week as the pressure gradient relaxes.
In addition, seas will also gradually subside throughout the week
with 2-4 foot seas through tonight across northern marine waters
before falling to 2 ft or less by this evening and will continue
to gradually less into late week. Otherwise, daily chances for
showers and storms will persist throughout the week with highest
rain chances across central and southern Gulf waters at times as
deeper moisture lingers in these areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Series of disturbances will bring pockets of higher moisture across
the through the period. Northeasterly winds are expected today and
Wednesday. Meanwhile, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to
develop across the east coast during the morning and pushing inland
towards the western side of the Florida peninsula later in the day.
Some drier air starts to spread southward into portions of the Nature
Coast by mid week but minimum RH values will remain well above
critical levels as daily rain chances continue through the remainder
of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  90  77 /  40  30  50  30
FMY  91  76  90  76 /  60  50  70  50
GIF  91  74  92  75 /  50  30  50  20
SRQ  90  74  89  75 /  40  40  60  50
BKV  91  70  91  71 /  40  20  40  20
SPG  88  76  88  77 /  40  30  50  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby