Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
556 FXUS62 KTBW 310743 AAC AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 243 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 A split flow U/L pattern persists across the CONUS this morning with a strong southern stream cut-off low over the southern plains, and quasi-zonal northern stream across the extreme northern tier of the U.S. The cut-off low will lift northeast and shear out today across the central Missouri valley as it becomes absorbed by the northern stream. The U/L energy will move quickly to the mid Atlantic coast late tonight/early Saturday and will exit out over the western Atlantic Saturday and Saturday night. The U/L pattern will shift a bit over the weekend and into next week as quasi-zonal flow develops across the CONUS with a strong rex block developing over the eastern Pacific. The northern/southern streams will merge along the west coast of the U.S. The exception will be over the Gulf and Florida where a strong U/L ridge will build and create strong subsidence with continued above normal temperatures. This will hold over the region through next week. At the surface, a cold front will approach north Florida late today associated with the sheared out U/L cut-off low. Boundary layer winds will shift to the south, which will create an area of sea fog, which will be locally dense, over the northern/central coastal waters as warm moist air overrides the cooler shelf waters. The cold front will gradually push down the Florida peninsula tonight. Winds will veer southwest and will advect the sea fog locally onshore. A chance of showers will develop across the nature coast late this evening which will push slowly southeast overnight. Areal coverage of showers will decrease with time as the U/L support will be pulling rapidly away from the area. Fog will clear from north to south as winds shift to the north in the wake of the front. High pressure will build over the area on Saturday with decreasing cloudiness and slightly drier air advecting across northern and central areas. This will be the last frontal boundary the region will likely see for a while as the building U/L ridge over area will be anchored over the forecast area through next week. This will block any frontal boundaries from pushing this far south. The result will be partly cloudy skies and very warm temperatures with the potential for some late night/early morning fog each day through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 211 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 Overall, VFR conditions will prevail today. Patchy early morning fog will create LCL MVFR VSBYs with the best chance impacting PGD/LAL. Could even see a brief period of IFR CIGs due to the fog at PGD. The fog will lift at all terminals by mid morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 211 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 A cold front will push across the waters tonight, with locally dense fog developing ahead of the front. Scattered to numerous showers north this evening, with a decreasing chance across the central/southern waters. Winds will be a bit elevated but will remain below cautionary levels. High pressure will build over the waters in the wake of the front and will hold over the region through next week creating relatively benign conditions each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 211 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 63 75 62 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 81 64 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 84 64 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 76 64 74 63 / 0 10 0 0 BKV 81 59 77 56 / 0 20 0 0 SPG 73 62 72 62 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby