175
FXUS62 KTBW 021836
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
236 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A very messy weather pattern expected for the rest of our work week
as a weakening cold front drifts into Central Florida over the next
couple of days. PWs will continue to increase to around 2.25 inches
by tomorrow. This will help to bring widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms to our area through the weekend as the front hangs
around the area. NHC is still monitoring the front for tropical
development with the chance of development still sitting at 40%.
Whether it develops or not the main hazard we will be seeing will be
heavy rainfall and above average rainfall totals.

 By early next week the front finally pushes away as PWs drop
slightly between 1.75 and 2 inches. Our flow will remain of the
southwest for Monday and Tuesday. This means our highest chance of
rain will be in late morning through the afternoon as the storms
start close to the west coast and more inland. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A stall out boundary will start to bring widespread showers to the
our area through the TAF period. I have highlighted the best
chance of thunderstorms. Winds will primarily be out of the south
and southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Winds will remain out of the south and southwest between
10 to 15 knots for the work week before calming down to 5 to 10
knots for the weekend. A stall out front over the area will help
to enhance shower development meaning we will be seeing widespread
showers through Sunday with isolated thunderstorms. NHC is still
monitoring the front for tropical development with the chance of
development still sitting at 40%. Whether it develops or not the
main hazard we will be seeing will be heavy rainfall.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a
minimum.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  77  86  78 /  80  80  90  60
FMY  90  76  86  77 /  80  60  90  60
GIF  89  75  86  75 /  80  50  90  40
SRQ  89  76  86  77 /  80  70  90  70
BKV  88  74  88  73 /  80  70  90  50
SPG  86  78  85  78 /  80  80  90  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Davis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis