855
FXUS62 KTBW 190650
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
250 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The flow will turn more northeast to north today and then
northwest on Wednesday as Erin moves north off the southeast U.S.
coast. Abundant moisture will hang around today, but some drier
air will begin moving in from the north late in the day. This flow
will help focus the higher rain chances closer to the west coast,
and especially southwest Florida where the moisture will be the
deepest. On Wednesday the relatively drier air will be across the
region delaying the onset of most of the convection, but by late
afternoon and evening we should see scattered showers and
thunderstorms once again with the highest rain chances over the
interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula.

For Thursday through early next week, a west to southwest flow
will setup across the area with moisture returning. This will
shift the timing of the scattered to numerous rain chances to
overnight and morning over the coastal waters and near the coast
then moving inland and into the interior and eastern half of the
Florida peninsula during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 16Z, then scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop causing some
MVFR/local IFR conditions. The convection will move offshore and
wind down during the evening with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight. Light northeast winds will increase to 5 to 10 knots by
late morning, then shift to northwest during the afternoon as the
sea breeze moves inland. The exception will once again be at LAL
which will remain northeasterly. Winds will diminish and become
light easterly again during this evening. Gusty erratic winds will
be possible near any convection that develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

An increased northeast to north flow will setup for today, but
we`ll still see a sea breeze develop during the afternoon shifting
winds to northwest. On Wednesday the overall flow will shift to
northwest with slightly drier air moving into the area lowering
the rain chances. For Thursday through the upcoming weekend we`ll
see a west to southwest flow setup with moisture returning leading
to higher rain chances at almost anytime. Winds will remain under
15 knots through the forecast period with seas generally 2 feet
or less outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Today and especially Wednesday will be the driest days of the week
as Erin passes to the east. Given the distance from the storm, winds
are expected to remain light, and low-level moisture will still
remain well above critical thresholds. However, dispersions are
expected to be rather high on Wednesday. Otherwise, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are expected each day, especially during the
afternoon and early evening hours. For Thursday through the weekend,
a west to southwest flow will setup across the area with rain chances
near the coast during the late night and morning hours moving inland
into the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula each
afternoon and evening

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  79  93  82 /  50  20  20  20
FMY  94  78  93  79 /  70  30  30  10
GIF  95  77  95  78 /  50  10  30  10
SRQ  94  77  92  79 /  60  40  20  20
BKV  94  73  93  76 /  50  10  20  20
SPG  91  79  90  81 /  50  30  20  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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