472
FXUS62 KTBW 211023
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
623 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions continue, with heat indices just below
  advisory criteria today.

- Drier air aloft central and south today and Saturday leading to
  lower rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026
VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Best chances
will be this morning for coastal sites, then storms move inland
and east of the terminals for this afternoon and evening. A
similar pattern is forecast for tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region today.
Combination of slightly lower heights aloft, increased cloud
cover, and slightly lower dew points will keep maximum heat
indices just below heat advisory levels today...although it will
still be hot. High temperatures in the lower to mid 90s with
maximum heat indices of 103-107. Drier air aloft will advect over
the central and southern forecast area late today and Saturday
which will aid in suppressing convection. Onshore west to
southwest flow will push the west coast sea breeze inland with
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing mainly over the
interior during the afternoon hours each day.

On Sunday, southwest boundary layer flow ahead of a weak boundary
across north Florida will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity
over the northeast Gulf, which will advect onshore portions of the
nature coast. Elsewhere, scattered showers/storms will develop
over the interior during the afternoon as onshore flow persists.
Continued hot with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

Early next week, Monday will be a transition day with overall weak
boundary layer flow which will allow the east and west coast sea
breeze boundaries to push slowly inland through the day, likely
colliding over the interior late in the day which will be the
focus for highest pops.

On Tuesday, light southeast boundary layer flow will develop
which will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary closer to the
coast. Slightly lower deep layer moisture will hold daily pops
below climatic normals. Deep layer moisture will begin to recover
over the southern forecast area mid week which will increase pops
over southwest Florida, with slightly lower pops north and
central. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above
climatic normals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the
weekend and into next week. Relatively weak pressure gradient each
day will keep winds below cautionary levels with relatively low
seas. Main hazard will be scattered showers/storms, mainly during
the overnight and morning hours, which may cause locally gusty
winds and rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above
critical levels for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  80  90  79 /  20  20  30  40
FMY  94  78  93  78 /  30  10  20  10
GIF  94  76  94  76 /  30  20  20  10
SRQ  92  78  91  78 /  20  20  20  30
BKV  93  74  90  73 /  20  20  40  40
SPG  90  80  89  80 /  20  20  30  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...
DECISION SUPPORT...
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...