Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
477 FXUS62 KTBW 221322 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL 922 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 922 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025 The fair dry weather pattern continues as high pressure at the surface and aloft holds across the region. Temperature will warm quickly reaching the lower 90s over inland areas this afternoon, but the low level east to southeast flow will remain light enough to allow a decent west coast sea breeze to develop and move inland keeping coastal areas several degrees cooler. Current forecast looks good with no changes planned. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 922 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025 VFR conditions prevail as high pressure dominateS. Only impact of note will be diurnal wind shifts due to the sea breeze propagating inland during each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025 A dry, stable pattern remains in place across the Florida peninsula as upper-level ridging remains overhead. The mid and upper-level flow is out of the SW, helping to advect a little bit of moisture into the region around 300mb (30kft). This is why there has also been a continuous stream of cirrus clouds. However, the surface background flow remains out of the SE. The overall gradient has been of a moderate intensity. This means that the sea breeze is late to develop and limited in how far east it can get. As such, afternoon highs will climb into the mid-90s across much of the area. With an easterly flow, this will advect the warmer air from points east into our region, meaning some of the highest temperatures across the entire peninsula are likely each day across the interior of West Central and Southwest Florida. The heat is the main weather impact for the week as the pattern remains locked in. Ridging will continue to remain in place, with little overall change in the pattern over the next week. Moisture will gradually increase, though, as the persistent SE flow advects additional moisture into the region. As such, there is a low (10% to 20% chance) for a shower during the afternoon/evening hours across the interior beginning on Friday and continuing into early next week. This is likely to be very limited, though, so generally the expectation should be warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather over the next seven days. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025 An ESE flow persists through the week, but turns onshore during the afternoon hours as the sea breeze develops. This will shift back to the east as the sun sets, with a couple hour window each evening where the winds will increase and become gusty as this transition takes place. There won`t be much change to this pattern through the remainder of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Conditions remain warm and dry, but stable. This will favor lower dispersions across portions of West Central and Southwest Florida today, but they will continue to increase over the next few days. Even though no rain is in the forecast for the next few days, a SE flow continues to keep just enough moisture in place to keep RH values above critical thresholds. This will gradually increase through the week as well, with a low chance for showers and storms (around or less than 20%) by the weekend. No red flag conditions are anticipated a this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 90 66 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 91 66 92 66 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 85 67 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 90 61 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 85 70 87 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Davis