557
FXUS62 KTBW 030905
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
505 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Showers and storms over the Gulf waters have started to move
inland across the CWA. Meanwhile, an upper level trough and
surface low pressure remain over the peninsula. This is keeping
southwesterly winds over the state and pulling ample moisture,
which is supporting the current activity. Given the multiple days
of rainfall and the training of storms today could bring the
potential for isolated minor flooding. Additionally, the
widespread cloud coverage will keep afternoon highs from getting
above the upper 80s today and on Friday.

The aforementioned U/L trough should begin to move north to
northeast but PWs over 2 inches remain in place, which will
continue to support period of showers.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

During the weekend, moisture remains fairly high with guidance
keeping POPs high. Later into next week, drier air gradually
starts to wrap into the area as the low lifts out, allowing
coverage of rain to regulate. However, southwesterly winds will
keep scattered to numerous showers and storms shifting onshore in
the late morning and early afternoon, building into the interior
through early evening. Temperatures will also increase gradually
getting back into the 90s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Area of low pressure slowly moving over the area will bring ample
moisture to the state. As a result, periods of showers and storms
are anticipated through the period across terminals. It will be
difficult to pinpoint where the storms will develop, but most of
the guidance keeps on and off rain and thunderstorms during most
of the day. At this time, it seems as we go into the evening,
most of the activity should begin to diminish, at least for a few
hours, after around 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Southwesterly winds between 10 to 15 knots remain in place for
the remainder of the week before calming down to 5 to 10 knots
over the weekend. A stalled out front over the area will help to
enhance shower and thunderstorm development for the period. Higher
waves and winds are possible near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Ample moisture remains over fire districts as area of low pressure
moves over the state supporting periods of showers and storms through
the period. Therefore, no fire weather concerns are anticipated
during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  78  89  77 /  90  60  90  60
FMY  86  76  89  76 /  90  70  80  50
GIF  87  75  88  75 /  90  50  90  30
SRQ  87  77  89  76 /  90  70  90  60
BKV  88  73  90  72 /  90  50  90  40
SPG  85  78  87  77 /  90  70  90  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle