242
FXUS62 KTBW 130845
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
445 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Much drier conditions in place this morning across the Sunshine
State. ACARS sounding showed PWAT values around an inch and a lot
less clouds are present compared to the last few days. Meanwhile,
upper level trough stretching along the Eastern Seaboard remains
there allowing drier air to be pushed across the peninsula. A
boundary stalled south of the area and enough moisture available
over southern portions of the CWA will support showers and
isolated storms this afternoon. Otherwise, most of us remain dry.
NOrth to northeasterly winds prevail and will push any activity
that does develop southward.

On Sunday, morning lows will dip into the mid 60s in portions of
the Nature Coast. Drier air remains across most of the state with
lower rain chances in place.  High temperatures stay in the upper
80s with dewpoints dropping into the 60s along the Nature Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM (MON-FRI)...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

DUring the long term, model guidance keep dry air in place as
high pressure builds to the west while trough remains along the
coast through mid week. Then, strong ridge pushes trough east as
higher moisture filters in. This will support an increase in rain
chances across the area. Temperatures stay fairly unchanged.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across most terminals through the
period. MOde; guidance brings lowering ceilings close to sunrise,
but confidence is not high enough to show a change categories at
this time. North to northeasterly winds prevail and become breezy
going into the afternoon, especially near PIE. Additionally, there
is the potential for showers and storms to develop near southern
terminals during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Frontal boundary just south of the state will support periods
of winds in the exercise caution criteria across the northern and
central waters through tonight. Otherwise, they are expected to
remain 10 to 15 knots out of the northeast to north winds with
seas up to 3 feet. Over the weekend the boundary will drift
further south as high pressure builds in from the north with some
drier conditions expected, but isolated to scattered mainly late
afternoon and early nighttime showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

A frontal boundary remains south of the state today. This will bring
drier air across the area lowering rain chances. The highest rain
chances should be over the interior and south FL. North to northeast
winds prevail becoming gusty at times through the weekend. Relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels during this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  73  89  72 /  20  10  20   0
FMY  89  71  89  73 /  40  20  30  10
GIF  89  70  89  71 /  30  10  30   0
SRQ  88  70  89  71 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  89  67  89  66 /  20  10  20   0
SPG  87  73  87  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle