917
FXUS62 KTBW 032347
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
747 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A stationary boundary persists over south Florida. Tight pressure
gradient remains over the Florida peninsula due to strong high
pressure to the north and the stationary boundary to the south.
This continues to produce gusty east to northeast winds across
west central and southwest Florida. The broad easterly flow off
the Atlantic is also generating scattered showers...which are
dissipating as they push inland this evening. Skies will become
partly cloudy across the region by midnight.

Daytime heating on Saturday will create areas of strato-cu
ceilings by afternoon. The gusty east to northeast winds will
continue, with scattered showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm developing during the afternoon hours. High
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s north and central,
around 90 south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Today`s forecast remains on track with the main concern being the
strong, gusty winds causing hazardous marine conditions. The
elevated, gusty northeast to east winds are expected to continue
through tomorrow before relaxing a little on Sunday. The higher
winds are attributed to tight pressure gradient between a high
pressure system over the Eastern Seabord and a weak tropical wave
over the Bahamas. Currently the National Hurricane Center has a
very low chance of the tropical wave developing into a tropical
system as it moves NW from the Bahamas over Florida this weekend.
No significant impacts are expected from this wave. It may provide
a little extra moisture for afternoon shower development over the
weekend, especially along the interior. Otherwise, the wave lifts
out of the region by the beginning of the week and a ridge builds
back in. This will allow afternoon temperatures to increase and
drop rain chances. By the end of next week, some models are
hinting at a cold front dipping down into Florida, that could drop
temperatures by a few degrees. However, it is a little early to
get too excited about fall like temperatures just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions are expected the remainder of the night with skies
becoming partly cloudy. Daytime heating will create areas of
strato-cu on Saturday with SCT LCL BKN035-040. Scattered showers
will develop during the afternoon hours with brief MVFR CIGs/VSBYs
possible at all terminals until around sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Hazardous marine conditions into the weekend as the pressure
gradient remains tight between an high pressure to the north and a
tropical wave to the south. The winds subside slightly on Sunday,
but will likely remain around cautionary levels into next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of moisture lingers
over the area. However, winds out of the northeast and east, do
remain elevated the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  74  88  76 /  20  10  30  10
FMY  87  73  89  74 /  40  20  30  10
GIF  87  73  87  75 /  30  20  30  20
SRQ  89  72  89  73 /  20  10  30  10
BKV  87  69  87  72 /  20  10  30  10
SPG  86  75  87  75 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close