842
FXUS62 KTBW 201122
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
722 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions, low rain chances and winds less than 10 knots will
prevail at all terminals through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Ridging will remain overhead with dry air aloft. This will once
again limit shower activity. However we will see plenty of moisture
at the surface. This will result in another hot afternoon with highs
in the mid 90`s and heat indexes between 105 to 110. This is higher
then our normal summertime heat and a heat advisory has been issued
for much of the area.

As we start our work week ridging will start to move away as we see
a more typical seabreeze pattern for the afternoon and evening
hours. This will only be temporary as a weak frontal system stalls
over the area on Tuesday. This will set up a very similar set up
that we saw last week. We will see increase moisture with PW at or
above 2.25 from Tuesday through Thursday. This will bring widespread
showers and thunderstorms again to the forecast. By Friday the front
will start to dissipate and we will see slightly lower PoPs
chances as southeasterly flow regime sets up.

Looking at next weekend models are trying to show drier air
filtering in once again which could lead to another warm and dry
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Winds will remain out of the north and northeast for
Sunday and Monday with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. Shower chances
will be limited both days. By Tuesday a weak cold front will stall
across the state this will shift winds slightly to a more northwest
direction. However the bigger change will be higher then normal
shower and thunderstorm chances through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  82  94  81 /  30  10  40  30
FMY  95  78  95  78 /  20  20  60  40
GIF  97  77  98  78 /  30  20  50  30
SRQ  93  78  94  78 /  20  20  40  30
BKV  95  75  95  75 /  30  10  40  30
SPG  93  81  92  80 /  20  20  40  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-
     Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle