197
FXUS62 KTBW 091832
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
232 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hazardous marine conditions will continue into the weekend.

 - Limited heat risk with warm and humid conditions through
   Friday.

 - Drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected this weekend
   into the first half of next week.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
A mid/upper-level trough is digging into the southeast this
afternoon while at the surface, high pressure is centered over the
Great Lakes region and a frontal boundary is moving into northern
Florida. The pressure gradient remains a bit tight, with gusty
northeast winds continuing to bring some fast-moving showers and a
few storms east to west through the rest of the day. For tonight
into Friday, the trough will continue to dig and try to cut off with
low pressure starting to take shape off the Florida east coast. This
will lead to pretty similar conditions to today, with the highest
rain chances over the interior and southwest Florida.

Low pressure off the northeast Florida coast really takes shape on
Saturday and quickly moves up the eastern seaboard through the
weekend. Drier air will move into the region starting Saturday
(though there will still be some lingering shower activity), but
then on Sunday and into next week, rain chances will be virtually
zero as high pressure settles over the region. We will also get our
first taste of Florida fall as a slightly cooler air mass with
lower dew points moves over the region for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Mainly VFR conditions are expected, though we could see some MVFR
cigs again tomorrow morning, similar to today. Showers will continue
to quickly move toward the west/southwest through the rest of the
day, with southwest Florida sites having the best chance, though
impacts will be on the low side. A similar rainfall pattern is
forecast for tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Breezy northeast winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels
for the waters around Tampa Bay northward, with elevated winds
continuing through Saturday. For the waters off the southwest
Florida coast, winds will also be elevated, but more in the exercise
caution range. Winds start to relax on Sunday and will then remain
below headlines through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Northeast winds will increase and become gusty through Friday with
warm and humid conditions continuing. Scattered and fast-moving
showers with a few storms are expected each afternoon and evening
mainly over the interior and southwest Florida region, then a cold
front moves through this weekend, bringing drier air over the
region. Despite this, relative humidity values are expected to
remain above critical levels, with no fire weather concerns. No
significant fog is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  87  71  84 /  10  40  10  10
FMY  74  87  71  85 /  30  50  20  20
GIF  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  20  20
SRQ  73  88  71  85 /  10  40  10  10
BKV  71  84  67  82 /  20  40  20  10
SPG  74  84  71  82 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday
     for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$