370
FXUS62 KTBW 212355
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
755 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Convection over the southern interior and southwest Florida will
continue to wind down over the next few hours. Overnight a few
more showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
northeast gulf moving into coastal parts of the Nature Coast,
possibly reaching the Tampa Bay area toward morning. Then more
scattered to numerous convection is expected to develop around
midday near the coast shifting inland during the afternoon and
evening. Thanks to the higher rain chances there should be more
clouds which will help keep high temperatures in the upper 80s
along the coast to lower 90s inland, with heat indices mostly
between 100 and 105. Overall current forecast looks ok with no
major changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF forecast
period. However, a few showers and thunderstorms could develop
toward Tuesday morning around Tampa Bay, then become more
scattered to numerous during midday and afternoon everywhere as
the convection moves inland. There are indications that the
showers and thunderstorms could move back toward the west coast
during Tuesday evening. Winds will become rather light and
variable tonight, then increase out of the west to northwest at
5 to 10 knots by late Tuesday morning. Brief gusty and erratic
winds possible in any convection.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Number one concern today continues to be the heat. Most areas were
already observing triple digit heat indices by 11am today. Some
shower and thunderstorm activity has already started to fire up,
with more expected this afternoon, especially inland as the sea
breeze pushing activity away from the coast. Relief from the
oppressive heat is in the forecast starting tomorrow as a weak
frontal boundary moves in and stalls over north FL. This will bring
plenty of moisture to the area, increasing rain chances tomorrow
through Friday. Weather Prediction Center has placed the peninsula
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow. Basically,
there is an increased risk of flash flooding, especially for
areas prone to flooding. The more typical FL summertime pattern
returns by the weekend, though a bit of dry air moves over the
area, decreasing overall rain chances. High heat will become the
main story once again for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

No major marine weather concerns through the periods as winds remain
below 15 kts. Shower and thunderstorm activity increases tomorrow
through Friday as a frontal boundary stalls over north FL.
Thunderstorms will bring gusty winds and lightning as they move over
the waters. Stay weather aware when spending time on the water.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

No major fire weather concern as plenty of moisture remains in the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  91  80  89 /  40  70  70  80
FMY  79  92  76  91 /  30  70  50  80
GIF  78  92  76  91 /  40  80  60  80
SRQ  79  90  77  88 /  30  60  70  80
BKV  76  91  74  89 /  50  80  70  80
SPG  80  88  78  86 /  40  70  80  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis/Delerme