389
FXUS62 KTBW 181410
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1010 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

A beautiful day setting up across West Central Florida with
tempeatures getting to around 80 degrees this afternoon. No
changes needed to the forecast at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Warming and moderating trend to begin today as upper low moves
off the Mid Atlantic and weak upper ridging from the NE Carib
nudges into the region. At the surface, the strong high pressure
center that is north of the state will continue to produce a tight
pressure gradient with breezy NE winds that will increase low
level dew points.

The weak upper ridge is expected to move over the state Saturday
then shift into the Gulf Sunday as the persistent surface high
pressure area remains over the Eastern U.S. with temps warming
back to above normal values while the dry mainly rain free
conditions continue.

Next week expect an upper low in the W Atlantic with upper ridging
in the W Gulf producing dry NW flow aloft while the surface high
pressure area finally weakens mid week. A weak back door cold
front is then expected to move into the region late next week.
Guidance keeps PoPs 10% or less through the 7 day forecast period
as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 805 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

VFR conditions with gusty winds out of the north and northeast
throughout the daytime hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure north of the state will continue to produce a
tight pressure gradient with breezy northeasterly winds and
choppy seas through the weekend keeping the small craft advisory
in place for hazardous boating conditions. Winds will slightly
decrease next week as the high pressure area slowly weakens.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Slow warming trend with increasing RHs today through the weekend
with occasionally gusty northeasterly winds and localized high
dispersion values. No significant fog is expected for the next
several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  67  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  82  71  85  68 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  82  67  83  67 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  83  68  85  67 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  81  62  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  82  71  85  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis