896
FXUS62 KTBW 072335
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
735 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...


.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions prevailing with drier air limiting convection
across terminals. Overnight winds remain light and increase on
Sunday from the southwest. Given the current flow could support
some low clouds during the early morning hours but confidence is
not high enough lower categories. SImilar conditions are
anticipated with drier layer of air keeping rain chances low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Very dry SAL over the region is suppressing convection today as we
are in a SW flow seabreeze regime. The SAL will remain in place
through tomorrow and into early next week with warm and humid
conditions but limited rainfall and below normal PoPs to mainly
afternoon inland areas. The surface ridge axis to the south will
eventually move back Nward next week with a return to E-SE steering
flow mid week with increasing PoPs on seabreeze boundaries as the
SAL eventually wanes late week. Expect slightly above normal
temps with heat index values 100-105 daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  91  79  92 /  10  20  10  40
FMY  76  93  77  93 /  10  30  10  50
GIF  76  95  75  94 /  10  30  10  40
SRQ  77  89  77  90 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  73  92  72  93 /  10  30  10  40
SPG  79  88  79  89 /  10  20  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Davis/Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn