668
FXUS62 KTBW 021737
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
137 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Current radar is showing a few showers developing close to the coast
as the weak seabreeze slowly pushes inland. The inland trend will
continue through the rest of the afternoon into the evening. With a
little extra cloud coverage so far today, temperatures have remained
slightly lower compared to previous days. However, widespread heat
indices in the low 100s are still present. Expect more of the same
tomorrow, with earlier coastal showers moving inland in the
afternoon.

Looking a little into the future, there are a couple different
features that will impact the local conditions. The first feature is
a frontal boundary that will be stalled out over north FL this
weekend, into next week. This boundary will help increase moisture
for the area. However, the other feature that could have an opposing
impact will be any dry air that mixes in thanks to the Saharan dust
that continues to move over the area. These two features will be at
odds most of the week. The area will bounce between increased rain
chances thanks to the frontal boundary and decreased rain chances
and very warm temperatures when the dry air wins out. Overall the
pattern will still be a typical summertime setup with warm, humid
conditions and greatest chances of rainfall in the afternoons along
the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

VFR conditions prevail outside of any shower/thunderstorm activity.
Storms continues to develop along the coast and will push inland
this afternoon into the evening. Some storms can bring strong, gusty
winds, low ceilings and low visibility as thy move through.
Conditions quiet overnight before a similar setup returns
tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Marine concerns remain low as a light WSW flow continues through the
weekend. Only concern will be showers and storms that pop up over
the water bringing gusty winds, and frequent lightning. With the
current pattern, storms will be more likely overnight into the
early morning before they move onshore and coverage shifts inland.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Plenty of moisture over the region will keep fire weather concerns
low. Typical summertime pattern continues with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  92  81  91 /  10  30  20  60
FMY  79  91  78  91 /  20  40  30  50
GIF  78  93  78  93 /  20  40  20  70
SRQ  79  91  79  91 /  10  30  20  50
BKV  75  92  74  91 /  20  50  20  60
SPG  82  89  81  89 /  10  30  20  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle