912
FXUS62 KTBW 060727
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
327 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Broad high pressure aloft is continuing to ridge across Florida
today and will gradually shift east through Monday, while in the
low levels, the sub tropical ridge axis extends from the
Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula. This stacked ridging will
keep the very warm air mass in place, with afternoon temperatures
running several degrees above normal and continuing to flirt with
record levels both afternoons.

Relief from the heat is on the way, however, with a deep trough
forecast to dig into the southeastern US by Monday night, dragging
a cold front into the Florida Peninsula. Pooling moisture ahead
of the front will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop
along and ahead of the frontal passage. While the upper level
dynamics will be in place for a few stronger storms over the
Nature Coast counties early Monday evening, these storms should
quickly lose support as they advance south into the Tampa Bay
area and southwest Florida.

A cooler and somewhat drier airmass will fill in by Tuesday, with
highs topping out in the 70s as high pressure builds back in to
the north. Conditions will warm up slightly Wednesday through the
end of the week, but will generally remain around normal with
highs in the low to mid 80s. Another trough will approach the area
Friday night and Saturday with hints of more rain possible, but
global models have yet to come into good agreement on this system,
so the NBM rain chances remain low for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours under southerly
flow, turning to southwesterly in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

High pressure ridging into the waters from the Atlantic will keep
southeast and south flow in place today and Monday, turning
onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. A tight
pressure gradient between this ridge and an approaching front
will allow wind speeds to run near Small Craft Exercise Caution
levels today, and near Small Craft Advisory levels on Monday.
That front will push southeast through the waters Monday night,
with showers and storms developing along and ahead of the front
Monday afternoon through Tuesday. High pressure builds back in
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Atlantic high pressure ridging into the Florida Peninsula will
keep south and southeast flow in place, turning onshore near the
coast with the afternoon sea breeze. Relative humidity percentages
are expected to drop into the low 30s over the interior this
afternoon, but wind speeds will not be high enough to cause Red
Flag conditions. Otherwise, high dispersion indices are expected
this afternoon and again Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  74  87  66 /   0   0  20  70
FMY  90  70  88  71 /   0   0  10  50
GIF  94  69  91  65 /  10  10  10  60
SRQ  88  72  86  67 /   0   0  20  60
BKV  91  67  90  60 /   0   0  30  70
SPG  86  74  84  67 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Fleming