131
FXUS62 KTBW 081800
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
100 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

A warm day across the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures early this
afternoon are already in the low to mid 80s. Moist conditions
continue to be present at the surface with dewpoints in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Moisture wains further up in the atmosphere with
this mornings 12z sounding only indicating 1.01 inches of PW. These
values are near to slightly below the climatological mean for early
November. In the upper levels ridging extends across the Florida
Peninsula northwestwards into the Upper Plains. The forecast area is
between Hurricane Rafael to the southwest across the central Gulf
and high pressure to the north and east of the region. This is
leading to easterly flow across the region and this easterly flow
will feature throughout much of the forecast period. The dry air
aloft should keep conditions dry today, although there are a couple
of higher resolution models that indicate a few isolated light
showers later this afternoon/evening.

Over the weekend, there is not much change to the current forecast.
The pattern is rather progressive across the northern CONUS but
upper ridging remains in place across the Florida Peninsula with
warmer than average temperatures forecast. Highs each day will climb
into the mid to upper 80s with lows only around 70. Hurricane Rafael
will continue to drift across the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to
weaken as the storm encounters more dry air. This dry air will also
persist across the area with no precipitation mentioned in the
forecast over the weekend.

PW values begin to increase early next week as the ridge axis shifts
to the east of the area and a tropical wave approaches from the
southeast. For now, models indicate most of the precipitation early
next week will remain across the eastern half of the peninsula.
Models indicate that this tropical wave pushes back to the east
quickly late Monday into Tuesday with drier conditions moving back
into the region. A cold front eventually pushes through the area
late in the week bringing drier and cooler air to the region.

The main themes of the forecast continue to be that warmer than
average temperatures will continue throughout much of the forecast
period. Dry conditions will also continue with most areas forecast
to receive less than a quarter of an inch of rain over the forecast
period. The wettest model guidance keeps the area well under an inch
of rain over the next seven days. The last point is that a cold
front will eventually bring in cooler weather to the area late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

VFR conditions and easterly winds will continue throughout the TAF
cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Seas are beginning to gradually subside as Hurricane Rafael
continues to move to the west. Wave heights may occasionaly be as
high as 6ft well offshore through this evening. It looks to be
Monday before seas get to around 2 feet or less. Additionally, a
breezy easterly flow sticks around with a tight gradient between
Rafael and the surface high to our east. This combo favors
Exercise Caution conditions for small craft through the weekend.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Easterly winds will continue throughout much of the forecast period.
Dry conditions will continue with the best chance for rain forecast
to be on Monday. Despite the dry conditions, RH values remain above
critical threshold values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  87  72  87 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  71  87  71  88 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  71  87  71  87 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  88  71  88 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  68  87  68  87 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  75  86  74  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn