007
FXUS62 KTBW 111843
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
143 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Cold conditions continue through tonight.

-  Elevated fire threat continues through this afternoon.

-  Marine hazards continue through tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough swinging into the W Atlantic with dry WNW flow over
the local region while the surface Arctic airmass remains in place
for another night of cold conditions and frost possible especially
over the Nature Coast. Temps to start well below normal values this
evening then add optimal radiational cooling conditions after sunset
with clear skies and calm winds for frost development and a frost
advisory has been issued for the Nature Coast, also, a concern
preventing widespread frost in the Tampa Bay area will be some high
dewpoint depressions overnight or just too dry to get frost or dew.
Expect several hours of widespread sub freezing temps in Levy County
with short durations or just above freezing temps a further Sward
into especially in the typical cold prone areas. Elsewhere well
below temps remain in place with some locations near to just above
record lows.

The cold wx pattern will change with upper ridging trying to nudge into
the region from the N Carib to allow for a slow warming and moistening
trend Wed through the week. Pleasant weekend conditions are expected
with light winds and temps around to lightly above seasonal normals
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Thin veil of cirrus aloft otherwise clear lower levels with VFR conditions
through Wed as gusty N winds are decreasing this afternoon then becoming
light NE tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous boating conditions into this evening with residual elevated
seas and gusty winds. The pressure gradient to weaken further tonight
allowing winds and seas to slowly subside with improving marine
conditions mid to late week and continuing into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather threat continues through the afternoon with low
RHs and gusty winds mainly in C and S fire zones. The dry conditions
will remain in place through mid week as winds decrease reducing the
fire weather threat. RH and temps slowly increase late week and into
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  44  71  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  46  75  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  40  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  42  71  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  32  69  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  51  69  57  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Pasco-Sumter.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce