317
FXUS62 KTBW 081124
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
624 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Upper-level ridging remains over Florida as the surface high remains
situated off the Mid-Atlantic region. A breezy easterly flow
continues as Florida remains sandwiched between the surface high and
Hurricane Rafael, which has again reached major hurricane status as
it slowly moves westward across the Central Gulf. Thankfully, Rafael
looks to substantially weaken over the next couple days as it
continues to meander, posing little threat to the United States.

However, large swells continue to propagate outward from Rafael,
with elevated seas continuing today in our waters. There is a high
risk for rip currents at area beaches as well. Rafael has also
pulled a warm, humid airmass across the Florida peninsula.
Conditions continue to feel more like summer than November. In fact,
nearly every climate site either tied or broke not just the daily
record warm minimum temperature, but the monthly one as well.
However, the airmass has dried out quite a bit when compared to this
time yesterday. Satellite-derived total precipitable water shows
values down closer to an inch. This is in stark contrast to the 0Z
Thursday PWAT of 2.30 inches.

While it shouldn`t feel quite as muggy with the diminished
moisture, it will still be quite warm, and well above normal for
the day. In fact, this warm airmass looks to hang around into the
middle of next week at least. During this time the upper-level
pattern will flatten, keeping surface ridging to the north and
east. This will allow a E to ESE flow to continue, and deeper
moisture will gradually advect back in. This suggests some
isolated sprinkles or perhaps even a shower will be possible over
the weekend. By early next week, another deep tropical moisture
axis approaches, favoring higher chances for showers and even
perhaps a thunderstorm or two on Monday and into Tuesday.

The flow will begin to amplify again as the tropical moisture
arrives. On the heels of a trough axis passing northward, another
frontal boundary could push through near the end of the week to
finally kick the tropical airmass out. With highs in the 70s to
around 80 degrees and lows in the 50s and 60s for the end of next
week, this should be a really nice conclusion to the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

A wide variety of flight conditions this morning from LIFR at KPGD
to VFR at numerous other sites. Expect low clouds and ceilings
will linger for a bit this morning but should lift by 14z or so.
Otherwise, easterly flow will continue throughout the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Elevated seas of 4 to 6 feet continue today across coastal waters as
Rafael slowly meanders westward. While seas should gradually subside
as Rafael moves farther west, the slow movement means that the
decline will be more gradual. It looks to be Monday before seas get
to around 2 feet or less. Additionally, a breezy easterly flow
sticks around with a tight gradient between Rafael and the surface
high to our east. This combo favors Exercise Caution conditions for
small craft through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Breezy easterly flow continues with low rain chances through the
weekend. Today is the driest day with the lowest RH values for the
next several days, but low-level moisture remains high enough to
keep RH values above red flag thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  72  87  72 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  88  71  88  71 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  88  70  86  71 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  88  70  88  70 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  88  67  87  67 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  86  74  85  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn