679
FXUS62 KTBW 181830
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
230 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Thunderstorm coverage will increase today and Saturday, but
  will remain limited over the Nature Coast counties. Higher rain
  chances are forecast across the area Sunday into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026
High pressure sits aloft over the southern U.S. this afternoon while
a low spins over east Florida. At the surface, high pressure spins
just north of the region, keeping an east/northeast low-level flow
in place across the forecast area. With a bit more moisture
available today, we should see more storm coverage compared with
the last couple of days, with the highest chances still for the
southern half of the area. The pattern is similar for Saturday,
just with coverage extending farther north. We will also see some
colder temperatures aloft (500 mb temps around -9 to -10 deg C)
both days, which could lead to a few stronger storms.

For Sunday into next week, moisture will continua to increase,
resulting in more numerous storm coverage. Flow will still be
easterly, with showers and storms developing over the eastern half
of the peninsula and shifting westward through the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026
VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorm activity.
Scattered storms continue to move westward across mainly the
southwest Florida region, with a few additional storms elsewhere.
The best chances through the rest of the afternoon and evening
remain over KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW, with lowered vis/cigs possible
in any storm (along with higher winds). A similar setup is
expected for tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026
East/northeast winds will continue over the waters through the
next several days, with no headlines expected. The main hazard
will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each
evening, with locally higher winds and rough seas expected near
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Moisture will increase through the next few days, bringing higher
rain chances. East/northeast winds will continue, with showers and
storms moving westward through the day. Relative humidity values
will remain above critical levels, with no Red Flag concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  90  74  88 /  20  60  30  80
FMY  74  89  74  89 /  30  60  50  80
GIF  73  91  73  90 /  10  50  10  80
SRQ  74  90  74  89 /  30  60  30  80
BKV  70  92  71  90 /  10  50  20  80
SPG  76  89  76  88 /  30  60  30  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$