464
FXUS62 KTBW 022350
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
750 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...Rather wet conditions during the next couple of days...

A weak U/L trough and deep tropical moisture over west central and
southwest Florida continues to produce numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the region. Enhanced areas of
showers and isolated storms are currently located along L/L convergent
boundaries across the northeast Gulf and central nature
coast...the interior peninsula...and over southwest Florida and
the adjacent coastal waters. These areas could see 1/2 to 1 inch
of rain this evening...with locally two inches possible where
training of cells might occur. May see a brief reprieve of
shower/thunderstorm activity over land areas around/after
midnight for a few hours.

Onshore southwest boundary layer flow will allow scattered to
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms to redevelop over the
eastern Gulf later tonight..with the showers/storms moving
onshore during the late night/early morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A very messy weather pattern expected for the rest of our work week
as a weakening cold front drifts into Central Florida over the next
couple of days. PWs will continue to increase to around 2.25 inches
by tomorrow. This will help to bring widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms to our area through the weekend as the front hangs
around the area. NHC is still monitoring the front for tropical
development with the chance of development still sitting at 40%.
Whether it develops or not the main hazard we will be seeing will be
heavy rainfall and above average rainfall totals.

 By early next week the front finally pushes away as PWs drop
slightly between 1.75 and 2 inches. Our flow will remain of the
southwest for Monday and Tuesday. This means our highest chance of
rain will be in late morning through the afternoon as the storms
start close to the west coast and more inland. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A stall out boundary will start to bring widespread showers to the
our area through the TAF period. I have highlighted the best
chance of thunderstorms. Winds will primarily be out of the south
and southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist vcnty
PGD/RSW/FMY for the next couple of hours with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs
associated with showers...and MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs associated with
thunderstorms. Outside of showers/thunderstorms, VFR CIGs will
persist. Additional showers/storms will redevelop late
tonight/early Thursday morning and may impact all terminals with
similar conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Winds will remain out of the south and southwest between
10 to 15 knots for the work week before calming down to 5 to 10
knots for the weekend. A stall out front over the area will help
to enhance shower development meaning we will be seeing widespread
showers through Sunday with isolated thunderstorms. NHC is still
monitoring the front for tropical development with the chance of
development still sitting at 40%. Whether it develops or not the
main hazard we will be seeing will be heavy rainfall.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a
minimum.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  86  78  89 /  80  90  60  70
FMY  76  86  77  89 /  60  90  60  70
GIF  75  86  75  89 /  50  90  40  70
SRQ  76  86  77  89 /  70  90  70  70
BKV  74  88  73  89 /  70  90  50  70
SPG  78  85  78  87 /  80  90  70  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt