292
FXUS62 KTBW 110633
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
233 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

 - Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the weekend.
   Winds of 20 to 25 knots are forecast in coastal waters north of
   Englewood, creating seas of 5 to 8 feet offshore and 3 to 5
   feet nearshore. Tampa Bay will sea wave heights of 2 to 4 feet
   south of the Interbay Peninsula to Egmont Key.

 - There is only a 10% to 20% chance of showers near the coast
   today, with a 20% to 30% chance of showers across the interior.
   The highest potential will be in the late afternoon. It will be
   mostly cloudy and breezy today.

 - Nice, drier weather is forecast through midweek before gradual
   warming takes place late in the week. The next significant
   cold front arrives late next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

With an upper-level low over North Florida, a Nor`easter is taking
shape off the Florida east coast. This setup has dragged slightly
more mild and a significantly drier airmass over the western half
of the peninsula in the mid and upper-levels. The gradient also
remains strong, favoring a continued gusty flow across coastal
waters.

However, the more fall-like weather conditions have not yet
translated to the surface areawide. While dewpoints across the
Nature Coast and Big Bend region have dropped in the low-to-mid
60s, dewpoints remain in the 70s across Central and Southwest
Florida. It`ll really take another day for this to fully sink in -
and that is because low-level NE flow is still feeding moisture
into the area as the low organizes off the East Coast.

Over the next 24 hours or so, the low will pull away as the trough
axis positively tilts over the Eastern Seaboard, forcing the storm
system up the east coast in the Carolinas into the vicinity of the
Carolinas. The system will then start to shear out as a strong ridge
builds in from the west and squeezes the trough between itself and
the subtropical ridge to the east. As this occurs, ridging will
build back in across the Florida peninsula, allowing winds to
subside somewhat - and gradually, the winds will veer to a more ENE
direction and eventually easterly direction. This will allow
temperatures to warm during the second-half of the week, with
dewpoints also creeping back up as well.

Overall, though, the forecast looks fairly benign during the work
week. Rain chances are low, skies should be mostly sunny, and the
mornings and evenings in particular will feel pretty good. It`ll
still be warmer in the afternoons (especially later in the week) -
but still not quite as warm as it has been. Overall, it should be a
fairly nice stretch of weather to carry us into the weekend when
change will be on the horizon once more as another front approaches
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Low CIGs will continue to be the main concern through mid-afternoon.
While sites are generally MVFR currently, lower IFR CIGs are
anticipated to meander into the area over the next couple hours and
could linger through mid-morning. As daytime heating occurs, CIGs
will gradually lift to MFVR and eventually VFR by mid-afternoon.
There is also a low (less than 20% chance) for a shower this
afternoon between 18Z and 23Z primarily in SWFL, but these probs are
too low for mention at this time. The still uncertain question is if
some additional low CIGs could be possible again tonight before
deeper dry air makes the potential less likely in the days to
come.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Hazardous marine conditions continue across coastal waters as gusty
winds of 20 to 25 knots build seas up to 8 feet offshore, making
conditions hazardous for small craft. Winds are forecast to begin
subsiding overnight, and seas will gradually subside in response.
However, this will take several hours, and slightly lighter but
still gusty winds on Sunday still favor conditions requiring small
craft to exercise caution on Sunday. As winds and seas become
lighter during the workweek, marine conditions will improve.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Gusty northeast winds will keep some higher dispersions in play as a
drier airmass moves into the region. However, low-level moisture
will remain sufficient to keep min RH values in the 50% to 70%
range. Thus, red flag concerns are low at this time through the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  68  84  68 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  85  68  85  68 /  20  20   0   0
GIF  83  65  84  64 /  20  10  10   0
SRQ  84  67  83  66 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  81  61  83  60 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  82  68  81  70 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Flannery