664
FXUS62 KTBW 040621
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
221 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Periods of showers and storms will continue through the period as
area of low pressure gradually moves away. Ample moisture remains
in place, but pockets of slightly drier air wraps around the low.
Rain will be on and off across terminals, but there should be a
break going into the evening. Southwesterly winds prevail and
become light into the evening hours. Lower ceilings and vis will
be possible near storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Evening ACARS soundings continue show a very saturated atmosphere
with PWATs exceeding 2 inches. This is above the 90th percentile for
the day. With ample moisture and weak instability with the trough
axis in the vicinity, showers and thunderstorms have continued to
form across the region. While this activity should become more
isolated in nature over the next few hours inland, there could
continue to be some lingering showers and perhaps thunderstorms
through the evening and overnight - especially along the coast.

The primary concern will continue to be heavy rainfall with an
overall light flow and saturated column. There is the possibility of
some training cells if storms continue to backbuild along slowly-
meandering boundaries across the region. However, this is likely to
only occur in localized areas, with the most greatest areas for
concern in urban spots or locations with poor drainage.

The current forecast is pretty consistent with this, but will
continue to monitor through the evening and overnight.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  89  78 /  80  60  80  50
FMY  90  77  90  77 /  80  50  70  30
GIF  90  74  90  75 /  90  50  80  30
SRQ  90  75  89  77 /  90  60  80  50
BKV  90  72  90  73 /  90  50  80  40
SPG  88  77  87  78 /  80  60  80  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle