082
FXUS62 KTBW 212329
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
729 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across much of west
central and southwest Florida this evening. Although areal
coverage will decrease through the remainder of the evening
hours, they may not completely dissipate. This is due to weak
high pressure over the region with the ridge axis across the
Florida Straits. This will maintain onshore west to southwest flow
across the forecast area tonight, with additional
showers/thunderstorms likely redeveloping over the coastal waters
after midnight...moving locally onshore, especially late tonight
and around sunrise on Friday. The best chance for late night
showers/storms should be over the coastal counties from the Tampa
Bay area and north. The onshore flow off the warm waters of the
Gulf will likely only allow overnight temperatures near the coast
to drop to around 80 or the lower 80s...except where rain occurs
which may allow temps to drop into the upper 70s. Inland areas
will see overnight lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Weak ridging remains over the FL peninsula as Erin lifts off the NE
coast. In the wake of Erin, a deep moisture fetch has been advected
over the peninsula. In response, coastal showers and isolated
thunderstorms have persisted, with some thunderstorm activity across
the interior as well and now pushing off the East Coast.

With the deep moisture and instability across the region, this
activity will continue off and on. The best potential for storms to
linger will be near the coast earlier in the day, with increasing
rain chances across the interior during the afternoon and evening.
The primary threats will be brief periods of heavy rain, gusty
winds, and frequent lightning.

The pattern remains amplified into next week, with shortwave energy
to kick things off, and deeper longwave energy to reinforce the
troughing across the E CONUS. This will keep  a WSW flow and deep
moisture across the peninsula well into next week. Thus, a similar
setup is anticipated for the next few days across the peninsula.

There may be a brief break in this pattern near the very end of the
forecast period, but that depends on whether or not a frontal
boundary is able to push through. While guidance is now suggesting
the boundary will stall across the region rather than move fully
south, climatology says it probably won`t quite make it that far.
Thus, the WSW may continue to stick around through the entire
period, with little change in the overall setup.

Thus, one should expect warm, humid conditions to continue with
scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Overnight lows will be warm, in the low 80s and upper
70s with the southwest flow off the water. Daytime highs will
continue to run into the upper 80s near the coast to low 90s
inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025
Although VFR conditions will prevail, scattered showers and
thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow will create LCL MVFR CIGs and
IFR VSBYs...with the best chance of storms developing vcnty
TPA/PIE/SRQ late tonight and early Friday morning. With the best
chance at LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW likely Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible at really anytime
through the forecast period as WSW flow dominates. The most likely
period, however, will be after midnight through mid-morning. While
storms may produce locally hazardous winds and seas, winds outside
of storms should remain around 15 knots or less with seas of two
feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Ample moisture and humidity will keep scattered to numerous showers
and isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the forecast each day.
With a WSW flow, the humidity values will remain quite high. There
are no serious fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  92  82  90 /  40  60  40  70
FMY  79  93  79  92 /  20  50  10  60
GIF  78  93  77  92 /  30  80  30  70
SRQ  79  92  79  91 /  40  50  40  70
BKV  75  90  75  90 /  40  70  40  70
SPG  81  89  81  88 /  40  60  40  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt