587
FXUS62 KTBW 090038
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
838 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Active round of afternoon and evening convection continues to
slowly diminish, but not before producing copious rainfall
amounts... into the 3-5 inch range across Tampa Bay area counties
prompting multiple Flood Advisories, and a Flash Flood Warning in
eastern Hillsborough County. Meso-analysis continues to indicate
PW values above 2 inches over the area, with a localized maximum
generally collocated with a surface trough axis and low to mid
level trough located roughly along the I-4 corridor. Rainfall will
continue to gradually taper off over the next few hours followed
by partly cloudy skies overnight. SE/S flow expected on Saturday
afternoon coupled with abundant moisture remaining over the area
will favor another round of numerous to widespread showers/storms
developing, with an attendant primary flooding threat along with
the threat for gusty winds and frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary remains over northern Florida this afternoon, with
an east to southeast low-level flow continuing across the state. A
few showers and storms have popped up along the west coast sea
breeze and over southwest Florida early this afternoon, then
additional activity will move westward from the other side of the
state through the afternoon and evening, leading to another stormy
evening across much of west-central and southwest Florida.
Similar to last night, some activity will linger after sunset
before clearing out over land areas for the overnight period.

For this weekend into Monday, moisture will increase south of the
frontal boundary stuck across northern Florida and this, combined
with several impulses moving across the region aloft, will lead to
an increase in convection as well as the threat for heavy rainfall.
Some minor flooding is likely, though the severity will obviously be
tied to how much rain any locale gets at once or over multiple
instances. Certainly something to keep an eye on over the next
couple of days.

Light east/southeast flow continues through the rest of the week,
with relatively lower rain chances on Tuesday that generally go back
up mid to late week. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat through
the week, with warm and humid conditions continuing otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Mainly stratified precip shield with embedded occasional
lightning continues across the northern terminals with VCTS
mention and brief restrictions possible over the next few hours
as evening convection gradually winds down, while southern
terminals remain mainly dry. VFR remainder of overnight before
similar convective evolution expected on Saturday with afternoon
through early-mid evening showers and storms develop with likely
impacts to terminals. Winds generally light/E-SE overnight
increasing to southerly 5-10 knots late morning into early
afternoon, with variable gustiness in/near storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast winds will remain over the waters through the next several
days, with a turn onshore near the coast each afternoon. The best
rain chances for today will be later in the evening as convection
moves westward over the waters from land, then rain chances increase
for the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns for the next several days as relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels. Warm and humid
summertime conditions will continue, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  90 /  70  90  70  80
FMY  75  92  76  91 /  50  80  60  80
GIF  75  93  76  92 /  60  80  40  80
SRQ  75  92  75  90 /  70  80  70  80
BKV  73  92  73  90 /  60  80  60  80
SPG  78  89  77  88 /  70  90  80  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby/Austin
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme/Ulevicius