976
FXUS62 KTBW 240933
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
533 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...
Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Calm conditions across the peninsula with temperatures in the 70s
this morning. High pressure remains in control keeping easterly
winds in place. Slightly drier air will be in place today, which
will bring showers and storms coverage down and keeping the
highest chances south of the I-4 corridor. Storms will develop
over the interior and push towards the coast in the afternoon.
Temperatures in the afternoon will climb up into the mid to upper
90s. Heat indices will also reach the triple digits during this
time.

Late on Wednesday, high pressure weakens allowing upper level
disturbance to approach the state. Though drier air will be still
be influencing weather conditions most of the day, pockets of
higher moisture will attempt to move into the area especially
southern portions of the CWA. Afternoon highs remain similar to
today.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

During the long term, model guidance bring the aforementioned
disturbance with increasing moisture along with it. This combined
with upper level support and enough instability could allow the
development of strong storms during this time. Lingering energy
and moisture going into the weekend though winds become west to
southwest as high pressure builds back again. Showers and storms
will be more likely early along the coast and push along the sea
breeze towards the interior in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR conditions prevail overnight and into the morning. Then,
chances for showers and storms increases during the afternoon
hours. Easterly winds remain in control which will push all of the
storms from the interior towards the coast. Storms should push out
of the area by 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

High pressure remains in control keeping benign marine weather
conditions. Winds will shift from easterly to more southwesterly
by late in the week. Showers and thunderstorms will also switch
from late afternoon/evening to more overnight/early morning by the
end of the week as the flow shifts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

High pressure remains in control of weather conditions across
fire districts through the next few days. Above critical humidity
values prevail with easterly winds in place. Therefore, no fire
weather concerns during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  95  77  93  77 /  20  10  40  40
FMY  94  74  94  74 /  40  20  70  40
GIF  94  74  94  75 /  20  10  50  10
SRQ  94  74  93  74 /  30  20  50  40
BKV  96  71  94  71 /  10  10  40  30
SPG  92  77  91  77 /  20  20  40  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby