Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
092 FXUS62 KTBW 071740 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 140 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Hazardous marine conditions continue through the week as winds remain elevated. - Summer-like conditions continue through the end of the week. - A cold front moves through Friday into Saturday, bringing fall- like conditions as it departs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 According to this morning`s sounding some dry air has moved in to the mid levels. However, plenty of low-level moisture has resulted in a blanket of low clouds throughout the morning. Some showers have also drifted in from the east coast as the easterly flow holds strong over the region. Tomorrow and Thursday, most shower activity will likely be over SW and S FL as more dry air continues to filter in over N and central Florida. The surface highs and upper level ridging that have been dominating the pattern will begin to weaken as a short wave trough begins digging in to the SE US. An associated cold front will push into Florida Friday into Saturday, increasing rain chances as it does. Behind the front, cooler, drier conditions are expected. For a few days it will feel less like summer and more like fall. Low temperatures drop into the low to mid 60s and highs will be in the low to mid 80s through most of next week. Even though it will feel like fall for a few days, the tropics are still active and hurricane season continues. The disturbance in the Atlantic has developed into Tropical Storm Jerry and should eventually turn north as it approaches the Leeward Islands. Another area of interest located over the Yucatan Peninsula has a low chance (10%) of developing as it moves into the Bay of Campeche. Though, neither of these systems are expected to have any impacts to our region, it is a good reminder that hurricane season is not over and to remain alert. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A blanket of low clouds have kept MVFR conditions through most of the morning into the afternoon. However, ceilings are slowly beginning to increase. Similiar to yesterday, a few showers and storms could move through later this afternoon into the evening, reducing flight categories once again. VFR conditions resume overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Winds still remain gusty over the waters, keeping conditions hazardous, especially for small craft. Unfortunately, winds stay elevated through the week, with a surge Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches the water. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Fire weather concerns remain low as plenty of moisture lingers over the area. A cold front this weekend will bring drier conditions early next week, however RH values should remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 74 91 76 90 / 10 10 0 20 FMY 74 90 75 88 / 20 40 10 60 GIF 72 90 74 88 / 0 10 10 30 SRQ 73 90 74 90 / 10 20 10 30 BKV 68 90 70 88 / 10 10 0 20 SPG 75 89 76 87 / 10 10 0 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley