Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
192 FXUS62 KTBW 040042 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 842 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 High pressure will continue into Monday with fair and mainly dry weather, along with very warm temperatures. Additional record highs were set and/or tied across the area today with temperatures continuing to be well above average through the weekend. The next cold front is set to arrive Monday night into Tuesday bringing us our next decent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Current forecast looks good with no changes necessary at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 842 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next few days, but there could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings each morning as daytime heating gets underway. Southeast winds will continue into Saturday and become gusty each day during the late morning and afternoon hours. The only exception will be near the coast during the late afternoon and early evening as the sea breeze tries to move inland shifting winds to south southwest at TPA, PIE and SRQ. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 An area of high pressure is currently in place over the state, bringing associated calm conditions and southeasterly flow that will shift southerly over the weekend. A period of warm temperatures has therefore set in, with highs in the low 90s and lows in the high 60s through Monday. Current high temperatures are well above the climatological mean, which has seen some record highs broken in recent days across West Florida. On Monday afternoon, a frontal system will begin to move through the area, inducing elevated probabilities (70%) of precipitation across our region. Associated showers are expected with a chance of thunderstorms. A cool down will ensue after passage of this frontal boundary while high pressure starts to build back in behind it. Highs in the middle of the week should drop to the upper 70s and low 80s across the area, while lows on are expected to dip down into the 50s. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Calm conditions are currently present as high pressure dominates. Over the next few days, winds are forecast between 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 feet along the west coast of Florida. At times, wind gusts may exceed this, and seas could be choppier in response. However, conditions should generally remain below cautionary levels into next week when the next cold front arrives and conditions deteriorate once more. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Warm weather, rain-free conditions and breezy southeast winds, shifting southerly over the weekend, will continue into Monday as high pressure ridges across Florida. RH values will remain above critical levels through the weekend as well. The only fire concern will be some high dispersions the next few days due to breezy southeast winds. A cold front moves through the area next Monday and Tuesday bringing a high chance of showers and the potential for thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 73 92 71 90 / 10 10 0 0 FMY 71 91 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 70 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 72 91 70 89 / 0 10 0 0 BKV 66 93 64 92 / 0 20 0 0 SPG 73 88 72 87 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Poggiali/Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Poggiali/Flannery DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme