612
FXUS62 KTBW 061754
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
154 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Ridging to our south will give us primarily southwesterly flow
through Monday. This regime brings us some isolated shower along the
coast in the morning hours before dissipating by mid morning.
However, most of thunderstorm activity will be inland and along
the east coast of Florida in the afternoon and evening hours. The
big factor for how much shower activity we will be getting over
this period will be the influence of the Saharan dust. This dust
will be keeping PW around 1.5 or lower. The dust and lower PW will
keep storm chances on the lower end through Monday.

We will see a pattern change next Tuesday as the ridge shift north
of the area. This will shift winds more southeasterly through
Thursday. At the same time the dust will start to dissipate and
PW will start to get higher topping out around 2 inches. The
higher PWs will bring storm chances higher in general. Also, the
southeasterly flow will bring the best chance of storms along the
west coast of Florida in the late afternoon and evening hours.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Saharan dust will help to keep thunderstorm chances lower today
but will still keep mention of VCTS at LAL, PGD, FMY, RSW. Winds
will remain out of the SW through the period generally below 12
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Ridging just south of our area will keep southwesterly
flow to the through next Monday with winds between 5 to 10 knots.
Best chance to see storms in this regime will be late overnight
through the early morning hours. Ridging will move north on Tuesday
switching our winds southeasterly still around 5 to 10 knots. This
will bring the best chance of storms in the evening hours as storms
push off the west coast of Florida.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Summertime humid and shower chances will remain through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  92  79  92 /  10  20  10  20
FMY  76  94  76  94 /  10  20  10  30
GIF  75  95  75  94 /  10  20  10  40
SRQ  77  90  77  91 /  10  20  10  20
BKV  71  93  72  93 /  10  20  10  30
SPG  78  89  79  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis