173
FXUS62 KTBW 250832
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
332 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

Zonal W-SW flow aloft in place over the state this morning east
of a lingering broad trough over FL and the E Gulf evident via
latest water vapor satellite imagery and meso-analysis, with
surface ridging extending across the peninsula from the W
Atlantic. Setup expected to continue into late week before an
amplifying shortwave moves across the E U.S. while an attendant
surface low pressure system drags a cold front across the SE U.S.
and FL peninsula on Friday. Limited moisture with the front will
likely lead to a mostly dry frontal passage, with a cooler, drier
air mass returning to the state over the weekend. Guidance
continues to indicate another cold front late weekend into early
next week followed by strong Canadian high pressure building into
the E U.S., potentially ushering an even cooler and drier air
mass into the state during the first half of next week.

Warming trend currently underway expected to continue through mid
week, with lows this morning in the mid 40s to mid 50s warming
into the mid 50s to lower 60s through mid week, with afternoon
highs warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s under sunny skies
and generally light winds. Overnight and early morning patchy fog
potential continues today through the next few mornings given the
expected light winds across the peninsula and sufficient moisture.
Cooler temps likely over the weekend following the late week cold
front, with lows dropping into the 40s and 50s and highs in the
60s and 70s. Even cooler temps possible behind the late weekend
cold front, with lows falling into the upper 30s to around 50 and
highs in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

Dry VFR expected through the period with light winds overnight
shifting to NE during the morning before shifting to W-NW during
the afternoon at northern coastal terminals, while southern
terminals maintain more of a NNE to perhaps NNW component, before
becoming light and variable during the evening. Patchy fog remains
a possibility during the late overnight into early morning hours,
however low confidence warrants exclusion from mention this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

High pressure remains over the region with pleasant boating
conditions expected across the Eastern Gulf waters through mid
week with light winds and clear skies. A mainly dry cold front is
expected to move across the waters late in the week followed by
strong high pressure building into the region with breezy NW-N
winds and elevated choppy seas into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

High pressure remains over the region accompanied by continued
dry conditions and a gradual warming trend through mid week.
Another period of critical to near-critical RH values expected
this afternoon, followed by gradually increasing humidity values
and temperatures through mid week with generally light winds that
may produce low dispersion values. A mainly dry cold front is
expected to move across the area on Friday followed by cool, dry
high pressure building into the region with gusty winds into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  55  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  80  58  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  80  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  79  56  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  77  45  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  76  61  77  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Oglesby