853
FXUS62 KTBW 040614
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
214 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Upper-level ridging is over the state as a trough axis remains
stuck in the Mississippi River Basin, sandwiched between the ridge
over FL and a strong ridge axis over the Southwestern CONUS. A
surface boundary is stalled over N FL in response, with weak
surface high pressure driving surface conditions across the
peninsula. The background flow is a light SSW direction, meaning
that sea breeze boundaries should encounter little resistance when
propagating inland this afternoon.

Moisture content continues to deepen through the atmosphere as water
vapor imagery shows more moisture advecting northward across the FL
straights this morning, favoring increasing PWATs through the day
and more uniform distribution of moisture through the column,
especially the closer one gets to the stationary boundary over N
Florida. As a result, the expectation is for better thunderstorm
coverage today than the last couple days, but still more limited
along the coast.

With better coverage of storms (and thus more cloud cover), this
should again keep indices closer to normal, topping out around 105
to 107 degrees this afternoon.  While this may be normal for this
region this time of year, it is still best to practice good heat
safety. Stay hydrated and in the shade as much as possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

This pattern stays pretty locked in for much of the work week, with
the subtropical ridge keeping weak high pressure over the state as
the ridge axis over the SW remains in place and a weak trough stays
sandwiched in between. The stationary boundary will persist over
north Florida, and light and variable wind flow will favor scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the state each day,
with subtle day-to-day variations in timing and overall coverage.

There is greater uncertainty in the setup near the end of the week
and into the weekend. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring
for an area of low pressure to form later this week a few hundred
miles off the southeast coast of the CONUS. Currently, it has a low
(30%) chance of development. The system`s proximity would favor
higher rain chances as the weekend approaches, regardless of any
development.

By early next week, the subtropical ridge should be building back
into the area and conditions should trend back to a more typical
setup for this time of year. Overall, though, the current
expectation is for pretty typical August conditions, albeit with
higher rain chances especially later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

As deeper moisture returns to the area, rain chances are increasing
across there area. There is a medium (50% to 60%) chance for
thunderstorms to impact most terminals this afternoon before most of
the activity transitions inland. This pattern will repeat for a
couple days before the likelihood and windows for impacts increase
closer to the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Isolated to perhaps scattered coastal storms are possible mainly
this morning before the bulk of the activity transitions inland by
early afternoon as light S to SSW flow continues across coastal
waters. This pattern will continue for the next couple days, with
the best potential for storms across coastal waters in the early
morning hours. With winds of 5 to 10 knots, seas should continue to
remain less than 2 feet through the middle of the week at least.
The potential for more storms will increase across coastal waters
as the weekend approaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

With increasing moisture, better aerial coverage of thunderstorms is
anticipated today. This will continue to increase through the week
as the flow remains light, allowing for sea breeze formation during
the day and thus a westerly shift in the winds during the afternoon
hours. With ample moisture, there are no fire weather concerns at
this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  81  94  80 /  50  40  60  30
FMY  95  79  96  78 /  60  30  60  40
GIF  96  77  96  77 /  70  40  70  30
SRQ  93  78  93  77 /  50  30  50  30
BKV  94  74  94  74 /  60  40  60  30
SPG  91  81  91  80 /  50  40  50  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery