Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
453 FXUS62 KTBW 241656 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1256 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 Weather pattern remains like a broken record. High pressure at the surface coupled with ridging aloft will keep temperatures above average and some heat indices in the triple digits. Afternoon showers and storms will begin to develop along the sea breeze boundaries this afternoon, mainly over the interior and south of I4. Instability mixed with cold mid level temperatures increases the risk for hail in any storm that develops. With this increased risk of hail, the SPC has placed areas of south of I4 in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. This pattern lingers into next week. However, the risk for hail and severe storms will begin to diminish as upper level temperatures begin to warm up. Rain is definitely welcome, given most of the area is still in severe to extreme drought conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 VFR conditions prevail. Light flow turns more onshore in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Some showers and storms expected later this afternoon especially in the interior and SWFL. && .MARINE... Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 Winds remain below 10kts for the next few days with an increase each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes onshore. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 Overall, no major fire weather concerns as moisture continues to increase. Winds remain light and rain chances increase in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 91 78 93 / 20 60 20 50 FMY 73 93 75 92 / 30 60 30 60 GIF 72 94 73 93 / 30 70 20 70 SRQ 74 90 75 91 / 20 60 30 50 BKV 67 93 68 93 / 10 60 20 50 SPG 77 90 78 90 / 20 50 30 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle