256
FXUS62 KTBW 160710
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
310 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Isolated to numerous showers and storms will develop today and
  Thursday from around Interstate 4 south, while drier air to the
  north will keep thunderstorm chances minimal.

- Gusty east to northeast winds will produce hazardous marine
  conditions into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Upper level high pressure parked over the southeastern US this
morning will gradually shift west late this week as an upper level
low slides west into Florida from the Atlantic. At the surface,
the sub-tropical ridge is currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic
Coast, with a tight pressure gradient to the south of this ridge
producing breezy east and northeast winds that will last through
much of the rest of the work week. This flow pattern is pulling
a notably drier airmass into the northern half of the forecast
area, with PWAT values forecast to drop to around 1.0-1.5 this
afternoon through Thursday afternoon. As a result, rain chances
are forecast to remain minimal today and Thursday from around
Interstate 4 north through the Nature Coast counties, while more
seasonable moisture to the south of I-4 will allow for isolated to
numerous showers and storms to develop each afternoon. Surface
dew points will also drop slightly as well, so the air may feel
somewhat less humid today and Thursday over the northern half of
the forecast area, although temperatures will remain near to
slightly above normal.

Moisture will begin to return from the east Friday through the
weekend and into early next week, with PWAT values increasing back
to around 2.0 inches or more and bringing back higher rain
chances and rain totals. Under light easterly flow, storms will
generally develop over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula
during the morning and early afternoon and shift west into the
forecast area during the afternoon and early evening hours before
dissipating around or shortly after sunset.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours,
although some MVFR ceilings will be possible at times during the
late morning and early afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will move west into the area during the
afternoon and early evening, with the highest rain chances over
southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD. Otherwise, breezy
east to northeast will hold throughout the day with gusts of up to
around 25 knots expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

High pressure holding north of the waters will keep mainly east
flow in place through the rest of the week and the upcoming
weekend, with a tightening pressure gradient causing wind speeds
to increase to around 20-25 knots over the eastern Gulf. As a
result, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore
waters north of Tarpon Springs today, with Advisory level
conditions expected to expand south and east through the rest of
the coastal waters by late this afternoon. Conditions will
improve Thursday night and Friday as the pressure gradient
relaxes, but daily thunderstorms will create locally higher winds
and rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

High pressure north of the state will setup breezy east and
northeast winds today and Thursday. Drier air moving into the
area from the northeast will limit rain chances each day for areas
from around Interstate 4 north, although more favorable moisture
to the south will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
No humidity concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  74  90  74 /  20   0  10   0
FMY  91  75  91  74 /  60  20  40  10
GIF  90  73  90  73 /  30   0  20   0
SRQ  92  74  92  74 /  50  10  20  10
BKV  91  71  90  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  91  76  91  76 /  30   0  20   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Friday
     for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Fleming