862
FXUS62 KTBW 150637
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
237 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Heavy
  rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary
  concerns with storms that develop.

- Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions
  by mid-week across eastern Gulf waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Ridge of high pressure has shifting north. This has shifted our wind
flow to an easterly direction. This will change our timing of shower
activity with inland areas seeing them in the afternoon while
coastal areas see in the late afternoon and evening hours.

As we head into our Wednesday an upper level low will start to
approach the state. Ahead of the low we will see dryer air
especially along and north of I-4 where showers will not be
expected. At the same time at the surface winds will start to
increase our of the east. We will see sustained wind around 15 mph
and with gust as high as 25. This upper level low will start to push
through on Thursday. As it does so winds will stay elevated and
drier air will remain north of I-4. The upper level low will move
away from the state on Friday as winds start to calm down. Even
though we will see enough moisture aloft for storms both Thursday
and Friday the upper level low will bring some drier air at the
surface. This will allow morning lows to be slightly cooler with
most of us in the low to mid 70`s instead of the mid to upper 70`s.
Dewpoints and temperatures could drop into the upper 60`s for some
inland area along the Nature Coast.

By the weekend the upper level low will be gone as easterly flow
continues.  This will result in storm chances favoring the west
coast once again through the weekend and next Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Wind flow has shifted more easterly thanks to the upper level
ridge shifting north. This will result in early afternoon storms
inland with late afternoon and evening storms along the west
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Ridge has shifted north which will shift winds more
easterly around 5 to 10 knots. An upper level low will start to
approach the area on Wednesday and push through Florida Thursday.
This will result in winds to quickly pick up out of the east.
These winds will peak Wednesday night with 20 to 25 knots with
gust up to 30. By Friday the upper level low will start to push
away resulting in winds slowly coming down. By Saturday afternoon
wind speeds will return to 5 to 10 knots out of the southeast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Deeper layer moisture remain over the state which will bring
scattered showers and storms across the state through mid week. We
will not have any major fire weather concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  77  90  74 /  60  20  40   0
FMY  92  76  91  75 /  60  30  70  20
GIF  92  76  90  74 /  60  10  50   0
SRQ  93  76  92  74 /  70  30  60  10
BKV  93  74  91  71 /  60  10  20   0
SPG  92  78  91  76 /  60  20  40   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Thursday for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming