858
FXUS62 KTBW 172323
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
723 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A few thunderstorms continue across the region this evening as
boundary collisions continue to take place. Overall, though, the
combination of waning daytime heating, ample cloud cover, and drier
air advecting into the region are limiting the coverage of storms.
Things should continue to wind down over the next couple hours, with
quieter weather returning through tomorrow afternoon.

The forecast remains on track.

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

As boundaries continue to linger in the vicinity of TPA, PIE, and
LAL, thunderstorms will continue to remain possible for another
couple hours. Elsewhere, the potential for thunderstorms is
decreasing across the area. There will be another window late
tomorrow afternoon for thunderstorms, but the overall probabilities
are lower than the past few days. Similarly low probabilities for
thunderstorms will linger through the weekend as a drier and more
stable air remains across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure is building back in over the area this afternoon, with
a southeast low-level flow continuing today. Showers and storms have
already begun to pop up and will continue to increase in coverage
through the rest of the afternoon and evening, especially closer
to the coast.

For Friday and through the weekend, ridging aloft will build
directly over the state, with increased subsidence and relatively
drier air keeping rain chances below normal each day. This will
allow high temperatures to climb and heat indices to approach
criteria as well. The ridge will then shift westward early next
week, with moisture returning to the region along with rain
chances going back up. Flow looks to be more onshore for these
days, which would keep the highest rain chances inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast to south winds will continue over the waters through the
next few days, turning onshore with the sea breeze in the afternoon.
Conditions are expected to remain below headlines, but daily showers
and storms are expected, with locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. Warm and humid summertime conditions will
continue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  94  80  94 /  40  40  10  30
FMY  77  95  76  95 /  30  40  10  40
GIF  76  96  76  97 /  30  40  10  30
SRQ  76  94  76  93 /  40  30  20  20
BKV  73  94  73  95 /  50  50  10  30
SPG  79  91  79  91 /  40  30  20  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Carlisle