Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
816 FXUS62 KTBW 130127 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 827 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain-free conditions and gradually warming temperatures expected remainder of the week and into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 824 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 Latest surface observations show temperatures have been dropping quite a bit quicker than previous forecast, particularly across the Nature Coast where most locations have decoupled shortly after sunset. Thus, made some adjustments to hourly temperature trends this evening to show the cooler trend, which ultimately resulted in lowering overnight lows and is more closely aligned with MOS guidance. This should put overnight lows in the low 40s across the Nature Coast with low/mid 40s for interior areas and low/mid 50s for coastal areas from Tampa Bay southward. These values won`t be nearly as cold as the last couple of nights but will still be around 10 degrees below normal for mid November standards, but otherwise no further adjustments needed to the ongoing forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 After seeing record breaking cold temperatures over the past 36 hours we are finally starting to see a warming trend this afternoon. Highs today look to be topping out right around 70 degrees. Overall, our weather pattern will be pretty stagnate over the next 7 days. On the synoptic scale high pressure will remain overhead through Saturday before drifting off into the Atlantic for Sunday and the early part of next week. This will result in dry conditions and a slow but steady warming trend through the period. Highs will return to the 80`s by Saturday however the drier air will still allow the temperatures to drop into the 50`s overnight. By early next week lows will be back into the 60`s with highs back into the mid 80`s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period as high pressure remains in control. Surface winds out of the NE will fall to 5 kts or less overnight and winds will be around 5-7 kts on Thursday mostly out of the NE, though a slight shift to the N may occur in the afternoon at coastal sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 High pressure will remain overhead through Saturday. This will keep keep winds around 5 to 10 knots out of the north and northeast. By Sunday the high starts to drift off into the Atlantic. As it does so winds will shift more westerly but remain only around 5 to 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 After a very dry start to our work week RHs will be slowly on the rise for later half of the week and into the weekend. Critical RHs will still be possible in SW Florida for Thursday but winds once again will stay very light. After that we will see min RHs in the 40`s and 50`s for Friday and through the weekend with no rain expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 50 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 52 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 46 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 50 76 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 40 75 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 55 73 60 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle