468
FXUS62 KTBW 171738
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
138 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Weak upper-level ridging and surface high pressure continue to be
dominant across the Florida peninsula, favoring an extremely light
ESE flow across the peninsula that veers onshore during the
afternoon. This is beginning to take place now, with the west coast
sea breeze now evident in visible satellite as thunderstorms
develop along the coast.

Major hurricane Erin will have a substantial impact on the overall
synoptic pattern in the coming days. Riding along the southern
periphery of ridging in the Caribbean, Erin is expected to
eventually make a northerly turn that takes the storm along the
eastern seaboard, following a break in the ridge. While passing
far enough to our east to negate any serious impacts across West
Central and SWFL, the storm will cause large, powerful surf along
the east coast of Florida, and dictate the ultimate placement and
intensity of the ridge axis across the state.

For the next couple days, the ridge remains pretty much directly
overhead. As Erin passes to the east Tuesday, the gradient will
tighten some, and the flow will turn NE. Some drier air is likely to
be pulled over us, and depending upon the exact structure and
proximity, we are probably looking at subsidence. This favors lower
rain chances and thus less afternoon relief from the heat during the
middle of the week.

As Erin lifts to the north towards the end of the week, a deeper
moisture fetch feeding into the storm returns, and the flow veers to
a southwesterly direction. This will favor earlier convective
initiation on Thursday and Friday along the coast, with storms
transitioning inland during the afternoon. It also would support a
warmer and more humid start to the day, with lows struggling to get
into the 70s especially along the coast.

By the weekend, ridging builds back in, and the overall flow trends
more neutral and then ESE again late in the weekend. With ample
moisture, this would favor a much more typical synoptic pattern and
thus standard setup for shower and thunderstorm activity for the
weekend.

While the nuances of the forecast have been addressed in this
discussion, ultimately these are just that - nuances. Day-to-day,
most probably won`t notice much of a difference. The overall
expectation, despite a major hurricane moving east of the state, is
for a fairly benign weather week that resembles a fairly common week
in August, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms and temperatures
climbing into the low-to-mid 90s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Thunderstorms are developing across the region this afternoon, with
the potential for some temporary impacts at terminals. The greatest
potential for impacts is at Tampa Bay area and central interior
terminals. With light flow, thunderstorms are likely to remain in
the vicinity until around or shortly after sunset. A similar pattern
will repeat again tomorrow before overall thunderstorm coverage
decreases mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Light winds and seas continue with high pressure directly overhead.
However, some thunderstorms should be expected near and along the
coast during the afternoon and evening, with additional
thunderstorms forming offshore overnight and towards the morning
hours. By mid-week, the flow will shift to the NE and then to the
SW, with a slight increase in winds and seas likely. Scattered
thunderstorms will remain possible, becoming more prevalent by
late-week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

A hot and humid airmass will continue to support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms each day. The driest days this week look to
be Tuesday and Wednesday before moisture again increases late in the
week. There are no significant fire weather concerns at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  79  94 /  40  60  30  50
FMY  78  95  77  94 /  40  60  30  60
GIF  78  95  77  95 /  40  70  20  40
SRQ  77  93  76  93 /  30  50  30  50
BKV  74  93  74  94 /  40  70  20  40
SPG  80  91  79  91 /  40  60  40  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery/Close