Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
368 FXUS62 KTBW 072351 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 751 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 749 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Easterly flow continued today across west central and southwest Florida. Similar to previous days, we saw scattered showers and isolated storms moving from east to west across the area. Some gusty winds to around 25 knots was reported in some of the stronger storms over southwest Florida. Radar trends are already showing activity slowing down and quiet weather is expected overnight. Overnight temperatures will be pleasant with upper 60`s to mid 70`s expected. Forecast looks good with no changes needed at this time. The NHC is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry located in the central Atlantic. This storm is expected to strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday evening as it tracks west and northwest just north of the Leeward Islands. Jerry is then expected to track northward over the weekend toward Bermuda and is expected to stay well to the east of mainland U.S. with no impacts expected for west central and southwest Florida. One other area of interest is being monitored near the Yucatan Peninsula. This area has a low chance (10%) of development over the next 7 days with no impacts expected to Florida. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 749 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Rain continues to wind down with only a few spotty showers left over SW FL, so will cover this with VCSH for PGD/FMY/RSW through 02Z, then rain-free conditions expected overnight. VFR conditions and east-northeast winds around 5-10 knots will prevail at all terminals overnight. Some gusty winds up to 18 knots will be possible tomorrow afternoon after 18Z. Rain chances will be low tomorrow, with only PGD/FMY/RSW seeing chances high enough to mention, so will cover this with VCSH from 18-23Z on Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 749 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Gusty easterly winds will continue reaching Cautionary levels through Thursday with winds around 15-20 knots expected and seas around 2-4 feet. Winds increase northeast to around 20 knots late Thursday and into the weekend as a frontal boundary moves through the area producing a tight pressure gradient. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the latter part of the week and continuing through Saturday. Lower rain and storm chances expected through the period with the highest chances over the southern gulf waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 74 91 76 90 / 10 10 0 20 FMY 74 90 75 88 / 20 40 10 60 GIF 72 90 74 88 / 0 10 10 30 SRQ 73 90 74 90 / 10 20 10 30 BKV 68 90 70 88 / 10 10 0 20 SPG 75 89 76 87 / 10 10 0 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby