583
FXUS62 KTBW 121743
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
143 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Weak high pressure in place across the region with weak flow
throughout much of the atmosphere. The main area of showers/storms
earlier this morning into early this afternoon has been across
Manatee and Sarasota counties and moved further inland. Expect
these showers and storms will continue to drift inland with best
chances for showers/storms throughout the remainder of the day
across the interior. PW values vary from > 2 inches from generally
I-4 southward with lower values to the north. Due to this,
continue with best chances for precipitation this afternoon and
evening to the south of I-4. Any ongoing convection should come to
an end near sunset.

PW values over 2 inches become more common going into Sunday and by
Monday PW values will be closer to 2.25 inches. These PW values are
above the 95th percentile for mid July. Due to this PoPs continue
to be on the high side on Sunday and into Monday with best PoPs
across the interior. Highest PoPs on Sunday will be around 70%
increasing to near 90% on Monday. The ridge will breakdown during
this timeframe with an upper low approaching from the east. With
elevated PW values and weak synoptic lift, WPC has placed the area
in a slight risk (2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday.
Localized flooding could become an issue on Monday, especially in
low-lying areas and areas of poor drainage. This upper level low
drifts to the west throughout the week and models depict a
potential weak surface low. PW values will also remain elevated
throughout much of the week. Due to these factors, PoPs will
remain elevated throughout much of the upcoming work week. With
the higher PoPs, temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs in
the mid 80s to low 90s. The threat for localized flooding may also
persist throughout much of the upcoming week.

The pattern looks to shift back to more of a typical summer time
pattern late in the week with more typical seabreeze showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions currently across the terminals but showers/storms
are approaching KLAL and expect MVFR to IFR conditions there
shortly. Further south, expect it will take a couple more hours
before the chances for VCTS arrives at KPGD, KRSW, and KFMY. The
forecast may be a bit too pessimistic for the remainder of the
terminals (KTPA, KPIE, and KSRQ), however, kept VCTS in the TAFs
for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
continue throughout the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

High pressure will hold over the waters through tomorrow. More
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected over the
waters next week. Winds and seas will remain below cautionary
levels through the period. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will
occur in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. Moisture
will increase with best chances for widespread showers and
storms on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  92  80  92 /  10  50  30  70
FMY  77  93  77  90 /  30  70  40  80
GIF  77  94  77  93 /  20  70  40  80
SRQ  78  92  78  92 /  20  40  30  60
BKV  74  93  75  92 /  10  70  30  70
SPG  80  90  79  89 /  10  50  30  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle