193
FXUS62 KTBW 261402
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1002 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A remarkably dry air mass is in place for late July standards as
the KTBW 12Z RAOB sampled a PWAT value of just 1.19 inches, which
is near the daily minimum for this time of the year and well
below the daily mean of around 1.81 inches. The core of the dry
air is also clearly evident on the GOES Blended Total Precipitable
Water (bTPW) imagery from the combined effects of subsidence
associated with strong ridging aloft and Saharan dust around the
region. With those factors in mind, it`s no surprise that skies
are clear at the moment across west central and southwest Florida
and it should generally remain that way until about mid afternoon
when a fair weather FEW/SCT cu field will then develop as a
shallow moisture layer lingers in the low levels. While it
continues to appear that the lack of any forcing for ascent and
dry air will keep rain chances extremely limited today, it is not
entirely out of the question that a few isolated showers/storms
develop with the highest rain chances generally north of I-4 and
focused inland around the I-75 and Florida Turnpike Interchange
and extended northward into north central Florida. However, even
in these areas, PoPs are only around 15%-20% with PoPs below
mentionable levels elsewhere so the main concern continues to be
the heat with the ongoing Heat Advisory left unchanged at this
time, which is in effect through 7 PM this evening from
Sarasota/Hardee County northward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tomorrow)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Upper-level ridging is centered over N Florida and just off the SE
Coast of Georgia and the Carolinas. A surface ridge axis is also
situated almost directly underneath, with a light a variable wind
flow at the surface. The upper-level ridge is advecting a dry,
stable airmass across the peninsula, with satellite imagery also
showing this layer to contain a substantial amount of Saharan dust.
All of these factors are contributing to the main impact this
weekend: the heat.

As the day progresses, the drier air aloft is expected to mix down
to the surface, thanks to daytime heating forcing air to rise. This
will disperse the low-level surface moisture that remains present;
but ultimately, this does not appear to be enough to overcome such
strong obstacles today. In response, rain chances are extremely low
for a July day. In many areas, rain chances will be zero.

Rain helps cool things down; but when the rain doesn`t materialize,
there is no relief. This can also be a compounding problem where
overnight lows really don`t cool and then the next day ends up being
even hotter. This scenario is expected to play out this weekend,
with Saturday being hot and Sunday even hotter. The current forecast
has temperatures approaching if not exceeding records in many areas.

With hot weather and really no relief from thunderstorms expected
this weekend, remember to practice good heat safety. Limit outdoor
exposure when possible. Cover up and seek shade if you must be
outside. Stay hydrated, and know the signs of heat-related
illnesses.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Upper-level ridging will remain overhead for the next several days,
with more of a continental airmass dominating aloft in response
through mid-week. While this will suppress rain chances, once some
of the dust starts to mix out again, there does look to be enough
moisture that some storms will begin to be supported in proximity to
where the east and west coast sea breezes collide. With a dominant
easterly flow remaining in place, this will favor higher rain
chances along the west coast than really just about anywhere else.
This increase in low-level moisture may, however, lead to even
higher feels-like temperatures - especially in areas where no
storms occur.

As the middle of the week approaches and the continental ridge axis
fades away, the more typical and weaker subtropical ridge resettles
overhead. This favors a more typical pattern by late week. Scattered
thunderstorms become more likely, with daytime highs returning to
low 90s (rather than upper 90s to near 100 degrees), driving heat
indices back down towards 100 to 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Strong high pressure across the area will yield a rain-free
Saturday with VFR conditions area-wide across the region. With
high pressure in place, surface wind speeds will be light with
E/SE winds less than 5 kts this morning gradually shifting onshore
by the afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland, but winds will
remain below 10 kts throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A hot and dry weekend is expected with winds less than 15 knots and
seas of 2 feet or less. Rain chances increase Sunday evening and
into early next week as additional moisture makes thunderstorms
along the west coast more likely. These storms will develop over
land, but should be expected to move out over coastal waters,
creating locally hazardous winds and seas as they do so.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A very hot and dry weekend is expected, with dewpoints potentially
dipping into the upper 60s and low 70s this afternoon. This will
push RH values down near 50% today and tomorrow. As low-level
moisture increases next week, the RH values will start to rebound,
and better rain chances will return to the forecast. With the wet
season well underway, there are no major fire weather concerns
despite the drier weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  95  81  96  82 /  10   0  40  20
FMY  96  76  96  77 /  10   0  30  10
GIF  98  78  98  77 /  10   0  30  10
SRQ  94  78  95  78 /   0   0  30  30
BKV  96  76  97  76 /  10  10  30  20
SPG  92  81  93  82 /  10  10  30  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Hardee-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Giarratana
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley