878
FXUS62 KTBW 180008
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
808 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 807 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will move west across
  southwest Florida today, while drier air to the north will keep
  rain chances limited across much of west central Florida.

- Gusty east to northeast winds will produce hazardous marine
  conditions into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Other than a few showers down in SWFL and a couple over the
interior, most of the area is pretty quiet this evening. There are a
few additional pockets of mid-level clouds streaming through, and
the gusty winds are beginning to subside as diurnal heating wanes,
reducing mixing. Overnight, the breeze should continue to subside,
with a fairly quiet start to the day expected. Moisture should begin
to rebound tomorrow, with around a 30% chance of showers and
thunderstorms south of I-4 and a 10% to 20% chance north. This is
consistent with the current forecast. No changes are needed at this
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Dry air has made its way into our area, evident in this morning`s
sounding with a PWAT value showing 1.6" compared to yesterday`s
2.2".  When you venture outside today the conditions may feel
slightly less humid and maybe even a little pleasant, especially
when you factor in the NE breeze. With the dry air over the area,
rain chances will be low for the majority of the area. The
exception will be over SWFL where enough moisture still lingers
leading to the possibility for an isolated shower or storm later
this afternoon. Moisture begins to creep back into the area
starting tomorrow from the south, increasing rain chances south of
I4. Elevated gusty winds will also begin to decrease

Over the weekend and into the beginning of next week an upper
level low will drift across Florida and linger in the eastern
Gulf. This will help push more moisture over the state, increasing
rain chances. Elevated gusty winds will also begin to decrease
over the weekend as the pressure gradient begins to lax. A light
easterly flow will take over, which will favor showers and storms
later in the afternoon into the evening for our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 807 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A few showers will linger in the vicinity of SWFL terminals for
another hour or two before conditions quiet everywhere overnight. As
moisture begins to rebound tomorrow, some shower and thunderstorm
activity is anticipated late tomorrow afternoon, with the best
potential in SWFL. Rain chances and the potential for impacts will
gradually increase over the next few days into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Hazardous marine conditions continue through the day as winds and
seas remain at advisory levels. Winds are expected to decrease as
the weekend approaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Main concern over the next couple of days continues to be the
elevated northeasterly to easterly winds. Winds begin to decrease
as the weekend approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  90  74  89 /   0  30  10  60
FMY  74  89  74  90 /  10  50  30  80
GIF  73  90  72  91 /   0  30  10  70
SRQ  74  91  74  90 /   0  40  20  60
BKV  71  91  70  91 /   0  20  10  60
SPG  76  91  76  89 /   0  30  10  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Pearce