459
FXUS62 KTBW 190045
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
845 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 843 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Thunderstorm coverage will increase Saturday, but will remain
  limited over the Nature Coast counties. Thunderstorms that do
  develop will have a higher potential of gusty winds and hail.

- Higher rain chances are forecast across the area Sunday into
  early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Aided by some mid-level dry air, thunderstorms produced some gustier
winds this afternoon across the region. Those storms have now pushed
well offshore and a light easterly flow is settling across the area.
While guidance does not show a particularly strong signal for this
outcome, the light ENE flow, coupled with low-level moisture, favors
the development of some low clouds around the I-4 corridor towards
morning. The forecast has been tweaked overnight to show some
additional clouds in the forecast towards morning.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. No additional changes are
needed at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026
High pressure sits aloft over the southern U.S. this afternoon while
a low spins over east Florida. At the surface, high pressure spins
just north of the region, keeping an east/northeast low-level flow
in place across the forecast area. With a bit more moisture
available today, we should see more storm coverage compared with
the last couple of days, with the highest chances still for the
southern half of the area. The pattern is similar for Saturday,
just with coverage extending farther north. We will also see some
colder temperatures aloft (500 mb temps around -9 to -10 deg C)
both days, which could lead to a few stronger storms.

For Sunday into next week, moisture will continua to increase,
resulting in more numerous storm coverage. Flow will still be
easterly, with showers and storms developing over the eastern half
of the peninsula and shifting westward through the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 843 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

With thunderstorms now pushing off the FL west coast, the potential
for thunderstorms has ended at all airports for the night. A window
will again return tomorrow afternoon, with an upper-level low moving
through favoring stronger wind gusts and a greater threat for hail
in storms that do develop. This low also means that light low level
ENE winds will persist across the area as the dominant flow, except
near the coast for a short period in the afternoon. When coupled
with high low-level moisture, some low clouds are possible beginning
around 09Z to 10Z at KLAL, KTPA, and KPIE. While guidance doesn`t
show a particularly strong signal for it, the conditions are right
and climatology would suggest it is possible. For now, have opted to
show SCT CIGs in the morning, but it could easily be BKN or OVC.
Will monitor trends overnight to see how conditions develop. Low
CIGs are even more likely tomorrow night, and deeper moisture moving
into the area Sunday and Monday favors higher rain chances and thus
a greater potential for impacts into the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026
East/northeast winds will continue over the waters through the
next several days, with no headlines expected. The main hazard
will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each
evening, with locally higher winds and rough seas expected near
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Moisture will increase through the next few days, bringing higher
rain chances. East/northeast winds will continue, with showers and
storms moving westward through the day. Relative humidity values
will remain above critical levels, with no Red Flag concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  90  74  88 /  20  60  30  80
FMY  74  89  74  89 /  30  60  50  80
GIF  73  91  73  90 /  10  50  10  80
SRQ  74  90  74  89 /  30  60  30  80
BKV  70  92  71  90 /  10  50  20  80
SPG  76  89  76  88 /  30  60  30  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Carlisle