Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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582
FXUS62 KTBW 192352
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
752 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025
A few storms persist from western Pasco to northern Hillsborough
county, and are moving to the south towards Tampa Bay. Damaging
wind gusts and small hail will be possible with these storms until
just after 8 PM. Showers and storms will dissipate across all of
west central and southwest Florida by around midnight.

High pressure will hold across the region on Wednesday with
significant subsidence over the forecast area due to being on the
far western periphery of Hurricane Erin. Boundary layer flow will
become onshore, with the best chance of shower/storm over the
coastal counties during the late morning/early afternoon...and
over the interior during the mid/late afternoon. However, overall
convection will be below climatic normals for August due to the
strong subsidence over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Weak ridging continues to dominate the FL peninsula as Erin
continues to move northward to the east of the Bahamas. With the FL
peninsula to the west of the storm, a northeast flow has settled
over the state. Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery shows a
little bit of drier air in response to the system over the region
as well. Additional ACARS sounding data also shows that PWATs have
declined slightly since this morning.

However, the overall moisture profile and content remains sufficient
for some thunderstorm activity today. Given that high pressure is
still dominant, the primary focal point for convection will be the
diurnal sea breeze boundaries, which are just beginning to become
evident along the FL west coast in the visible satellite imagery.
These have been delayed a little bit due to the northeast flow,
which has a sfc-3km mean flow of around 5 to 7 knots across the
region.

With the momentum from the east coast sea breeze quickly carrying
any convection that forms westward, the I-75 corridor and west,
particularly from Tampa Bay southward, will be the primary focal
point for convection. This is due to the adding forcing and moisture
pooling that will come together later this afternoon and into the
evening. Across the interior and the Nature Coast, the window for
storms will be short-lived, with these same favorable conditions
along the coast lacking across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

By tomorrow, however, everyone is looking at significantly lower
chances for rain. As Erin continues to move N and eventually NE,
the FL peninsula will end up in the subsidence region that
suppresses instability. It`s not to say that a couple isolated
storms won`t form, but most folks are unlikely to see rain right
now. The 20% to 30% chances along the coast and 40% to 50% inland
are probably generous.

However, this is short-lived as moisture will return as Erin
continues NE past Bermuda. As this takes place, a trailing moisture
axis that is feeding the storm will get dragged over us.
Simultaneously, the winds will shift to a WSW direction. This favors
earlier convective initiation particularly along the West Coast,
with this activity transitioning inland during the day. As another
stationary boundary sinks south over the weekend, this flow will be
reinforced - and conditions are starting to look more favorable to
be gloomier over the weekend.

By early next week, an easterly flow returns as the boundary slowly
attempts to sink a little further south. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the region
in response. Daytime highs may be a couple degrees "cooler" due to
additional cloud cover and the frequency of storm coverage. Overall,
though, conditions will remain warm and humid as thunderstorms

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025
Thunderstorms will persist this evening vcnty TPA/PIE for the next
couple of hours, and may briefly impact the terminals with MVFR
CIGs and IFR VSBYs. Skies will become mostly clear after midnight
at all terminals with VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

As a northeast flow continues through the evening, thunderstorms are
expected to develop and move offshore from Tampa Bay southward this
evening. Hazardous winds and seas should be expected in the
vicinity. Winds then shift to a northerly direction tomorrow before
going southwest on Thursday as sinking air suppresses storm
development tomorrow. Thunderstorm coverage then increases and thus
the overall potential for impacts increases late in the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Tomorrow looks to be the driest day for the week and sinking air to
the west of Erin suppresses overall instability and thus storm
development. However, RH values should remain well above critical
thresholds and winds should remain fairly light. Moisture and storm
chances increase late in the week as the flow becomes more WSW,
lasting into the weekend. There are no significant fire weather
concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  94  81  93 /  20  30  10  50
FMY  77  94  79  92 /  30  30  10  50
GIF  77  95  78  95 /  10  50  10  60
SRQ  77  92  79  92 /  30  30  10  40
BKV  73  94  75  93 /  20  30  10  50
SPG  79  90  80  89 /  20  30  20  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt