


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
582 FXUS62 KTBW 192352 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 752 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A few storms persist from western Pasco to northern Hillsborough county, and are moving to the south towards Tampa Bay. Damaging wind gusts and small hail will be possible with these storms until just after 8 PM. Showers and storms will dissipate across all of west central and southwest Florida by around midnight. High pressure will hold across the region on Wednesday with significant subsidence over the forecast area due to being on the far western periphery of Hurricane Erin. Boundary layer flow will become onshore, with the best chance of shower/storm over the coastal counties during the late morning/early afternoon...and over the interior during the mid/late afternoon. However, overall convection will be below climatic normals for August due to the strong subsidence over the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Weak ridging continues to dominate the FL peninsula as Erin continues to move northward to the east of the Bahamas. With the FL peninsula to the west of the storm, a northeast flow has settled over the state. Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery shows a little bit of drier air in response to the system over the region as well. Additional ACARS sounding data also shows that PWATs have declined slightly since this morning. However, the overall moisture profile and content remains sufficient for some thunderstorm activity today. Given that high pressure is still dominant, the primary focal point for convection will be the diurnal sea breeze boundaries, which are just beginning to become evident along the FL west coast in the visible satellite imagery. These have been delayed a little bit due to the northeast flow, which has a sfc-3km mean flow of around 5 to 7 knots across the region. With the momentum from the east coast sea breeze quickly carrying any convection that forms westward, the I-75 corridor and west, particularly from Tampa Bay southward, will be the primary focal point for convection. This is due to the adding forcing and moisture pooling that will come together later this afternoon and into the evening. Across the interior and the Nature Coast, the window for storms will be short-lived, with these same favorable conditions along the coast lacking across the interior. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 By tomorrow, however, everyone is looking at significantly lower chances for rain. As Erin continues to move N and eventually NE, the FL peninsula will end up in the subsidence region that suppresses instability. It`s not to say that a couple isolated storms won`t form, but most folks are unlikely to see rain right now. The 20% to 30% chances along the coast and 40% to 50% inland are probably generous. However, this is short-lived as moisture will return as Erin continues NE past Bermuda. As this takes place, a trailing moisture axis that is feeding the storm will get dragged over us. Simultaneously, the winds will shift to a WSW direction. This favors earlier convective initiation particularly along the West Coast, with this activity transitioning inland during the day. As another stationary boundary sinks south over the weekend, this flow will be reinforced - and conditions are starting to look more favorable to be gloomier over the weekend. By early next week, an easterly flow returns as the boundary slowly attempts to sink a little further south. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the region in response. Daytime highs may be a couple degrees "cooler" due to additional cloud cover and the frequency of storm coverage. Overall, though, conditions will remain warm and humid as thunderstorms && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Thunderstorms will persist this evening vcnty TPA/PIE for the next couple of hours, and may briefly impact the terminals with MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. Skies will become mostly clear after midnight at all terminals with VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 As a northeast flow continues through the evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move offshore from Tampa Bay southward this evening. Hazardous winds and seas should be expected in the vicinity. Winds then shift to a northerly direction tomorrow before going southwest on Thursday as sinking air suppresses storm development tomorrow. Thunderstorm coverage then increases and thus the overall potential for impacts increases late in the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Tomorrow looks to be the driest day for the week and sinking air to the west of Erin suppresses overall instability and thus storm development. However, RH values should remain well above critical thresholds and winds should remain fairly light. Moisture and storm chances increase late in the week as the flow becomes more WSW, lasting into the weekend. There are no significant fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 94 81 93 / 20 30 10 50 FMY 77 94 79 92 / 30 30 10 50 GIF 77 95 78 95 / 10 50 10 60 SRQ 77 92 79 92 / 30 30 10 40 BKV 73 94 75 93 / 20 30 10 50 SPG 79 90 80 89 / 20 30 20 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt