079
FXUS62 KTBW 040654
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
254 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 249 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

 - Winds of 20 to 30 knots will now continue to cause dangerous conditions
   for small craft through at least Sunday afternoon/evening.

 - There is a 20% to 30% chance of showers today, 40% to 50%
   chance of showers tomorrow. There is a low chance for a
   thunderstorm.

 - Little change in overall conditions through at least midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

An elongated upper-level low is stretched from the Central Gulf
Coast, eastward across Florida and the Bahamas, and out into the
central Atlantic. To the north, an upper-level ridge is situated
in the Great Lakes region and a digging trough axis is moving
through the Southwest CONUS. The setup in the E CONUS can be
characterized as a rex block - which is when a high pressure
system is located poleward of a low pressure system. This can lead
to a highly stagnant pattern.

Indeed, there has been little change in conditions for the last
couple days. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary just south
of the Florida peninsula has created a surface trough axis. Along
this axis, a a weak and very disorganized low pressure area has
formed in the Central Bahamas. Separately, at the other end of the
surface trough, some disorganized convective activity continues in
the north central Gulf. The combination of synoptic and surface
features has led to a persistent easterly flow with scattered
shower and isolated thunderstorm activity moving onshore and
across the Eastern Half of the Florida peninsula. During the
afternoon hours when daytime heating maximizes buoyancy, some of
these showers have been developing and moving farther west all the
way to coastal sections of West Central Southwest Florida. That
will continue through the weekend.

The main impact, however, continues to be strong winds that are
driving an elevated sea state. There is a fairly strong pressure
gradient across Florida as a 1027mb surface high remains centered
across the Mid-Atlantic. This is driving a pressure gradient of
close to 8mb across the State of Florida and thus breezy to gusty
winds. Over the waters where friction is lower, these winds have
been anywhere from 20 to 30 knots, leading to dangerous boating
conditions for small craft. With the gradient expected to relax
slightly Sunday and into the first part of the work week, these
winds will decrease somewhat, thus allowing seas to subside.
However, calm conditions are unlikely.

Overall, though, there is little change in the surface conditions
through the week ahead. While the rex block erodes as shortwave
energy moves across the N CONUS, some of this energy will
translate farther south and support continually lower mid-level
heights across Florida. The low over the Bahamas may drift a
little bit closer to the state, but is favored to remain very weak
and disorganized due to the relatively high shear. Thus, a
pressure gradient will remain, keeping a breezy easterly flow in
play at the surface. Low-level moisture will remain sufficient to
support a 30% to 50% chance of mainly low-topped showers in the
afternoon across the region as moisture is pulled in from the
Caribbean.

While not changing dramatically, this setup should be fairly nice.
Afternoon highs will still climb into the upper 80s to around 90
degrees; but with dewpoints in the low-to-mid 70s (which is a slight
decline from just a couple weeks ago), this favors a nicer start and
nicer end to each day. With no meaningful change in sight for the
next few days, this is a nice change from the oppressive heat and
humidity of summer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Gusty easterly winds will pick up again today as the sun rises. All
sites will also see a window for convective impacts between 18Z to
24Z. For Tampa Bay Area and central interior terminals, the
probability is around 20% to 30%. For SWFL terminals, the
probability is around 50%. There is only about a 10% chance for
thunderstorms areawide, so no mention in TAFs at this time. This
pattern will continue to repeat for the next several days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Dangerous conditions for small craft continue today as gusty winds
of 20 to 30 knots persist, driving peak offshore wave heights
anywhere from 5 to 8 feet high. Inland waters will also remain
choppy to rough, especially in areas with high wind exposure. There
is a 20% to 30% chance for mainly showers across coastal waters,
primarily in nearshore and inshore waters during the afternoon to
early evening hours. While winds are forecast to decrease somewhat
tomorrow, seas will still take longer to subside; and even though
the forecast calls for lighter winds next week, the winds are
forecast to remain elevated enough that seas of 2 to 4 feet will
likely persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The main impact will continue to be gusty easterly winds and thus
higher dispersions. Isolated to scattered showers will remain
possible as well, with a low chance for a thunderstorm. Low-level
moisture remains sufficient to preclude any significant fire
weather concerns as RH values remain well above critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  76  90  76 /  20  10  40  10
FMY  89  74  90  74 /  40  20  40  10
GIF  87  74  88  74 /  30  10  50  20
SRQ  89  73  90  74 /  30  20  40  10
BKV  87  71  88  72 /  20  10  50  10
SPG  87  76  87  76 /  20  20  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Flannery