562
FXUS62 KTBW 062354
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
754 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Shortwave trough aloft combined with afternoon seabreeze and
outflow boundary collisions to produce thunderstorms, a few
strong over interior zones with beneficial rainfall. These
showers and storms are expected to wane later this evening with
another mostly clear and warm night ahead. Latest grids and
forecasts on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
VFR conditions at TAF sites this evening as the area of SHRA/TSRA
over interior southern areas is expected to remain in that area
before waning later this evening. Light winds and clearing skies
overnight. Another seabreeze day Wed with late afternoon SHRA/TSRA
mainly inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

A stalled frontal boundary remains draped over FL, maintaining a SW
flow. Showers and storms are expected inland and further east. The
storm prediction center has placed the interior portions of the
forecast area in a marginal risk of severe weather for this
afternoon due to instability, coupled with low mid level
temperatures favoring hail development and strong winds. A few
isolated showers could develop along the outflow boundaries later
this evening and drift back towards the coast. A similar setup is
expected tomorrow afternoon, however rain chances will be pushed a
little further north as an upper level moves over north Florida.

Thursday and Friday the pattern becomes more of a typical summertime
pattern with afternoon showers developing along E/W sea breeze
collisions along the interior. However, as we move into the weekend
an upper level low will move over the southeast, resulting in deeper
moisture and widespread rain chances into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Marine hazards remain limited today as winds continue to be light
turning onshore with the sea breeze development. Shower and storm
chances increase each day as we approach the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Fire weather concerns remain limited through the weekend as plenty
of moisture lingers over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  89  75  88 /  20  50  20  50
FMY  72  90  73  90 /  20  30  20  30
GIF  72  89  72  89 /  40  70  20  70
SRQ  72  88  72  87 /  20  30  20  40
BKV  67  89  67  89 /  10  60  20  60
SPG  75  87  76  86 /  20  40  20  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana